Check Out

Article was added to your cart. Do you want to check out now?

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook

First Quarter 2015

Low, Low, Low…How Low Can You Go?

Preference for U.S.-focused risk assets based on expectations of positive economic trends, steady fundamentals and a strong dollar:

  • Upgrade to slightly overweight for U.S. small cap equities
  • Upgrade to slightly underweight for U.S. TIPS

Download Now

Highlights from the 1Q15 Outlook

Erik Knutzen
Chief Investment Officer – Multi-Asset Class

Below-Normal Return Outlook12-month Forecast In Line with
7-10 Year Annual Return Outlook
Above-Normal Return OutlookChange From
Previous Outlook
 o +
Global Fixed Income
Bunds 10 Year
Gilts 10 Year
JGBs 10 Year
U.S. Treasury 10 Year
U.S. Investment Grade Fixed Income
Investment Grade Corporates
Agency MBS
CMBS / ABS
Municipals
U.S. TIPS
High Yield Fixed Income
Emerging Markets Fixed Income
EMD Local Sovereign
EMD Hard Sovereign
EMD Hard Corporates
Return outlook higher than previous quarter
Return outlook lower than previous quarter
Return outlook essentially unchanged
Below-Normal Return Outlook12-month Forecast In Line with
7-10 Year Annual Return Outlook
Above-Normal Return OutlookChange From
Previous Outlook
 o +
Global Equities
U.S. Large Cap
U.S. Small Cap & Mid Cap
Master Limited Partnerships
Developed Market—Non-U.S. Equities
Europe
Japan
Emerging Markets Equities
China
Russia
India
Brazil
Public Real Estate
Return outlook higher than previous quarter
Return outlook lower than previous quarter
Return outlook essentially unchanged
Below-Normal Return Outlook12-month Forecast In Line with
7-10 Year Annual Return Outlook
Above-Normal Return OutlookChange From
Previous Outlook
 o +
Commodities    
Lower Volatility Hedge Funds    
Directional Hedge Funds    
Private Equity    
Return outlook higher than previous quarter
Return outlook lower than previous quarter
Return outlook essentially unchanged
o+Change From Previous Outlook
Dollar
Euro
Yen
Pound
Swiss Franc
EM FX (broad basket)
Return outlook higher than previous quarter
Return outlook lower than previous quarter
Return outlook essentially unchanged

*The currency forecasts are not against the U.S. dollar but stated against the other major currencies. As such, the forecasts should be seen as relative value forecasts and not directional U.S. dollar pair forecasts. Currency forecasts are shorter-term in nature, with a duration of 1 – 3 months. Regional equity and fixed income views reflect a one-year outlook.

The Committee members are polled on the asset classes listed above and these discretionary views are representative of an Asset Allocation Committee consensus.

Views expressed herein are generally those of Neuberger Berman’s Asset Allocation Committee and do not reflect the views of the firm as a whole. Neuberger Berman advisors and portfolio managers may make recommendations or take positions contrary to the views expressed. Nothing herein constitutes a prediction or projection of future events or future market behavior. Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed. See additional disclosures at the end of this material, which are an important part of this presentation.

This material is presented solely for informational purposes and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold a security. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Certain products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. The properties held by REITs could fall in value for a variety of reasons, such as declines in rental income, poor property management, environmental liabilities, uninsured damage, increased competition, or changes in real estate tax laws. There is also a risk that REIT stock prices overall will decline over short or even long periods because of rising interest rates.

This material has been issued for use by the following entities; in the U.S. and Canada by Neuberger Berman LLC, a U.S. registered investment advisor and broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC; in Europe, Latin America and the Middle East by Neuberger Berman Europe Limited, which is authorised and regulated by the UK Financial Conduct Authority and is registered in England and Wales, Lansdowne House, 57 Berkeley Square, London, W1J 6ER; in Australia by Neuberger Berman Australia Pty Ltd (ACN 146 033 801, AFS Licence No. 391401), which is licensed and regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission to deal in, and to provide financial product advice for, certain financial products to wholesale clients; in Hong Kong by Neuberger Berman Asia Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission; in Singapore by Neuberger Berman Singapore Pte. Limited (Company No. 200821844K), which currently operates under an exemption from licensing under the Financial Advisers Act (Chapter 110) of Singapore for marketing of collective investment schemes to institutional investors; in Taiwan to specific professional investors or financial institutions for internal use only by Neuberger Berman Taiwan Limited, which is licensed and regulated by the Financial Services Commission ("FSC") and a separate entity and independently operated business, with FSC operating license no.:(102) FSC SICE no.011, and address at: 10F, No. 1, Songzhi Road, Taipei, Telephone number: (02) 87268280; and in Japan and Korea by Neuberger Berman East Asia Limited, which is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Agency of Japan and the Financial Services Commission of Republic of Korea, respectively (please visit https://www.nb.com/japan/risk_eng.html for additional disclosure items required under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act of Japan). Except for the foregoing, this material is not intended for use or distribution within or aimed at the residents of any other country or jurisdiction. This document is not an advertisement and is not intended for public use or additional distribution in the following jurisdictions: Brunei, Thailand, Malaysia and China.

Neuberger Berman LLC is a registered investment adviser and broker/dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC. The "Neuberger Berman" name and logo are registered service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC.

© Neuberger Berman LLC. All rights reserved.