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CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2024
High-Vol Politics, Low-Vol Markets
Are markets calm because of electoral unpredictability, rather than despite it?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2024
To Understand the Macro, Study the Micro
Right now, second-quarter earnings reports may be a better guide to the economic outlook than official statistics.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2024
Higher for Longer: The CIOs’ Weigh In
While this year’s inflation and rates environment has disappointed many, we see it as a bump in the road that has created opportunity in several markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2024
Preparing for Rising Volatility
The second half of 2024 could see the current, localized election-related volatility go global.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2024
Un Pas à Droite?
Midway through a record-breaking year for elections, we have just been given another—and it is potentially among the most important.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2024
The Importance of Active Ownership
Shareholder engagement is for life, not just for proxy-voting season.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2024
It All Rests on Infrastructure
We see the asset class underpinning several key growth megatrends, but also the return of “big government” and its pursuit of security and protectionism.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2024
Re-Rating Financials
A year after the mini-banking crisis, we see the normalizing interest rate and yield backdrop generating tailwinds behind the Financials sector.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2024
The Structural Trends, Whoever Wins
Positioning for geopolitical shocks or election results is difficult, but we think the resulting structural trends are easier to identify and prepare for.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2024
Do We Now Need to Worry About Stagflation?
We believe high nominal growth, peak rates and broadening earnings performance continue to underpin equity market performance.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2024
The Coming Wave of Homebuyers
How higher rates for longer could be positive for U.S. consumption.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2024
An Ocean of Difference
‘Copy and paste’ your U.S. inflation outlook onto Europe and you may miss the opportunity in core European bonds.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2024
Hot Commodities
We think the asset class stands to benefit from our base scenario, while having the potential to outperform and act as a hedge should tail risks be realized.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2024
Stay Focused on Earnings
Should a sticky inflation release cause investors to revise their outlook for equities?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2024
Broaden Your Investment Horizons
It may be time to look beyond the U.S. for equity market performance, especially if early signs of a cyclical economic recovery persist.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2024
Time for the Yen to Blossom?
Strong forces still weigh on Japan’s currency, but its long, cold winter may be coming to an end.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2024
A Major Change in the Markets
Investors are now focused on growth more than inflation—what might that mean for portfolios?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2024
Re-Emerging Markets
After two years of record-breaking outflows, is emerging markets debt due for a turnaround?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2024
The Second Wave of the AI Investment Theme
The artificial intelligence investment theme made the “Magnificent Seven”—but could soon begin to disrupt it.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2024
The Credit Opportunity in M&A
In an environment of tight spreads and low volatility, we believe the reemergence of mergers and acquisitions can be a source of idiosyncratic alpha in credit markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2024
Earnings Remain Key in a Confusing Macro Picture
Macro uncertainty is high, but the earnings season has been solid—and not only in the U.S.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2024
Inflation and Consumer Sentiment
U.S. consumer sentiment has defied predictions of excess savings running dry, but do hotter inflation data pose a risk?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2024
Added Value in ABS
Corporate credit offers tight spreads and a broad consensus—might the complex crosscurrents of securitized products be more interesting?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2024
The News and Our Views
January was packed with news—and much of it supported our views for the year ahead.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2024
The Year Ahead for the Major Industry Sectors, Part 2
The second of two Perspectives outlining some of the key themes we think will drive the major industry sectors in 2024.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2024
The Year Ahead for the Major Industry Sectors, Part 1
The first of two Perspectives outlining some of the key themes we think will drive the major industry sectors in 2024.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2024
The Destination, Not the Journey
Interest rate expectations are volatile right now, but focus on the fact that almost everyone agrees rates have peaked and their next move is down.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2024
Poll Positioning
Voters representing around half of the world’s GDP go to the polls this year—what might that mean for the economy and investors?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2024
Outlook 2024
The leaders of our investment platforms welcome the new year with their views for 2024.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2023
Some Credit for Active Management
Tempted by high yield? Here’s why we think investors may want to consider resisting the temptation to invest passively.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2023
Investors Cannot Ignore the Debt-Sustainability Question
Despite a pullback in bond yields, clients at our Solving for 2024 event were still uncertain about how to invest in a world of runaway government debt.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2023
Breaking Down the Liquidity Silos
Breaking down the boundaries between liquid and illiquid assets could broaden our outlook and better align portfolios to our objectives and time horizon.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2023
COP28: Expect Disappointment and You'll Never Be Disappointed
Four things to look out for amid the pessimism at this year’s climate-change gathering.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2023
The Mortgage-Backed Moment
Securitized credit, and especially mortgage-backed securities, can be an attractive source of income while waiting for volatile bond markets to settle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2023
The Return of Industrial Policy
As governments play a bigger role in the economy, we think businesses and investors will need to think more about inflation, location and taxation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2023
Is Too Much Riding on the Tech Titans?
U.S. tech is “Magnificent” in many ways, but it cannot lead the market forever—investors may want to seek performance elsewhere.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2023
The Case for Co-investments
Scarcity of co-investment capital could be creating a window of opportunity.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2023
The Global Challenges for the Next Generation
The Annual IMF Meetings in Marrakech raised an interesting question: Is the whole world a developing economy now—and can it pay for that development?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2023
Geopolitical Shocks and Portfolio Construction
Investors should try to respond not to the events of the past week, but to the deeper global trends they reflect.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2023
Tighten Your Seatbelts
Shifting supply-and-demand dynamics appear to be driving bond markets more than fundamentals, which makes for a bumpy ride.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2023
Opportunity in the Private Equity Liquidity Squeeze
Why we think macro uncertainty and the private equity liquidity squeeze are making secondary market conditions particularly favorable for targeted buyers.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2023
Long the Strong
The prolonged adjustment to higher rates is just beginning, and we think it will likely be more painful for some than others.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2023
Political Gridlock but Fiscal Largesse
How political dysfunction undermines debt sustainability and helps embed structurally higher inflation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2023
The Sprint to Year-End
As the September starting gun sounds, here’s what we are looking out for on the track ahead.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2023
Navigating by Flashes of Lightning
Central banks may be reluctant to hike further, but as long as they tie themselves to incoming data their hands may be forced.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2023
Strike (Big) 3?
A potential U.S. auto strike has significant implications for the economy, earnings and inflation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2023
Late-Summer Debates
A few key issues could disrupt investors’ peace and quiet as fall approaches in the Northern Hemisphere.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2023
Working the Margins
While this is no time to be making major calls on asset allocation, in our view, there are abundant opportunities for generating incremental returns.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2023
The Consumer and the Stock Market
As the “wealth effect” is driven less by house prices and more by investment markets, it may change our views on asset valuations and portfolio construction.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2023
What if Everything’s Going to Be OK?
Falling inflation, recovering growth, relaxed central bankers—how one of the most widely forecast recessions in history failed to happen.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2023
The Bridge to the Future
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading is the epic story of the building of the Brooklyn Bridge, resonant with dilemmas we still recognize today.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2023
Taking Stock
As we reach the halfway point of an unexpected year for markets, what’s next for equities?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2023
The Meaning Behind the Mean
The headline characteristics of today’s market obscure a wealth of opportunity, in both public and private markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2023
The View From the Peak
Despite hawkish policymakers and very mixed economic data, the approaching plateau in rates brings more clarity and conviction to our fixed income views.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2023
Going Back to Base
In the face of conflicting signals from our short- and medium-term outlooks, our Asset Allocation Committee is adopting more neutral views.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2023
Don’t Give Up on China
The post-COVID reopening has disappointed, but has that disappointment and the prospect of new policy stimulus created a relative value opportunity?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2023
Tactics and Strategy
We tend to think about diversifying across asset classes, sectors and regions, but diversifying across investment timeframes can add value, too.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2023
Private Equity Valuations Withstand the Volatility of 2022
We see valuation data from more than 400 funds each quarter, and it suggests the recovery from a relatively shallow downturn may be underway for buyout funds.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2023
Resolving the Puzzle
To make sense of today’s market conundrum, remember that things could have been worse than they are, and that investors are more defensive than they appear.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2023
Is the Consumer Cracking?
News from the consumer sector reveals intriguing trends, as well as the importance of credit and security selection in today’s complex market environment.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2023
A Tale of Two Indices
How an “optical illusion” might be making the S&P 500 look more expensive, and better-performing, than it really is.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2023
What ‘Data-Dependent’ Feels Like
As central banks become more “data-dependent,” will monetary policy become less predictable and markets potentially more volatile?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2023
Trip Hazards
The U.S. debt ceiling is just one of a long list of obstacles waiting to trip up markets, and there is very little opportunity cost for remaining cautious.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2023
Proxy Voting: Engagement Matters
As we kick off our latest NB Votes campaign, we look at what detailed bottom-up knowledge brings to the process, and what can happen when it’s absent.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2023
Are Agency Mortgages a Home Run?
Why we think recent banking-sector stress has made already attractive U.S. mortgage securities even more keenly valued.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2023
A New ‘Impossible Trilemma’?
Can we lower government debt, sustain positive real rates and finance the transition to a low-carbon economy?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2023
As Credit Goes, So Goes the Economy
Credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and the credit system just had a heart murmur.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2023
Turning, Not Re-Turning
It makes sense to prepare for the turning point in this cycle—but not by returning to the winners from the last cycle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2023
The More Things Change, Part II
Banking stresses may have tightened conditions enough for policymakers to pause their hiking cycles indefinitely.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2023
At the Crossroads, Seeking Direction
Faced with historically inverted yield curves, unbalanced equity markets and economic conditions unseen for 40 years, investors are agonizing over their next steps.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2023
ESG: Making Sense of the Mudslinging
What ESG, sustainable investment and impact investment mean at Neuberger Berman, and how they are consistent with active management and the diverse needs of our clients.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2023
Commodities: From Destocking to Restocking
The micro and macro factors weighing on commodities since last summer are starting to reverse—and secular tailwinds are building.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2023
Politics, Deficits and the Debt Limit
We firmly believe that Congress will ultimately raise the debt limit, but it’s worth remembering that political drama affects markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2023
The More Things Change
Has recent strong data changed the fundamental economic and market outlook, or just the timeline?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2023
Central Banks Tighten, Markets Loosen
While some pessimism has lifted from central bank messaging, we still think the market may be hearing only what it wants to hear.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2023
Practical Implications of the New Regime
You’ve pinned down your economic and market outlook, but what does it imply for your investment strategy—and how much of that is realistic?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2023
A Delayed Reckoning
Equity markets had momentum coming into 2023, but has the economic data now become too bad for investors to ignore?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2023
A Peak That Persists
We think sticky services inflation paired with a moderate slowdown will enable central banks to maintain higher rates for longer.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2023
Macro Versus Micro
Top-down and bottom-up forecasts are increasingly diverging, and we think 2023 will be largely about how these divergences resolve themselves.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2023
Outlook 2023
The leaders of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2023.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2022
Escape From Flatland
A two-dimensional, return-and-volatility view of investments may not allow you to see important risks.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2022
A Tale of Two Cities
Why we think the resilience of the U.S. economy is proving to be a real conundrum for investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2022
Cryptonite
The FTX collapse is a blow to the idea of finance industry disruption and a potential source of volatility, but we think systemic contagion into broader financial markets is unlikely.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2022
The Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2022
Shooting Down the Hawks
As the U.S. Federal Reserve’s messaging gets blurrier, markets are focusing on the data.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2022
Divergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2022
COP27: A Chance to Reset
Broken promises, fraught debates and a dire economic and geopolitical backdrop are precisely why we believe COP27 is so important.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2022
Is This ‘Nightmare on Wall Street’ Coming to an End?
Do corporate earnings disappointments signal a weaker economy and easing inflation pressures, which could end this scary market—or are there more twists to come?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2022
An Eventful Time for Event-Driven Investing
In a tough market environment, we believe company management teams and boards have to be more creative, daring and decisive; seeking event-driven opportunities is all about finding those taking the most impactful action.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2022
Schooling the Sovereigns
Bond markets appear to be disciplining policy inconsistencies, both within sovereigns and among them.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2022
Be Wary of Bear Market Rallies
We may want to be optimistic about inflation and rates, but that only delays the hard questions we are likely to face as we enter the new economic era.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2022
Policy Excesses and Market Discipline
We are seeing bond investors standing up for themselves against policymakers, and while equity investors are experiencing pain from this struggle, the end result may be a more sustainable, fundamentals-based market.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2022
A High-Yielding Haven
As an ever-more-aggressive rate-hiking cycle rocks the financial markets, might corporate credit offer a space that is both remunerative and relatively calm?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2022
Hold the Inflation Victory Lap
Inflation still appears to be the biggest source of potential volatility in the market, and we think that’s because it will remain the dominant economic story for the foreseeable future.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2022
The Climate Has Changed for Infrastructure
Following a year of starkly revealed vulnerabilities in water, energy and supply-chain assets, some game-changing legislation suggests that governments are finally getting serious about infrastructure investment.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2022
The Uncertainty May Be Worse Than the Slowdown
We do think the onset of recession is a time to tread carefully, but it could also be a time of opportunity for equity investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2022
Euro Parity: Threshold or Boundary?
The euro is subject to enormous economic forces that could equally be very positive for the currency or the cause of an even greater fall.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2022
The Nominal and the Real
What might be the playbook for a potential recession in which nominal GDP grows by 8%—and are investors only just recognizing that they need one?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2022
China: Suspended Animation
The run-up to China’s leadership meetings this fall is delaying substantial policy changes, in our view creating opportunities in advance of potential economic improvement next year.