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Outlook: Adapt to Today’s New Challenges

Two multi-decade tailwinds behind the economy and financial assets are under threat. Globalization is hitting geopolitical, strategic, populist and practical roadblocks, and unsustainable growth powered by fossil fuels faces a difficult transition to ultimately more efficient growth powered by renewables.
Equity Market Multiples Were Generally Higher During the Post-1989 Era of Globalization
Equity Market Multiples Were Generally Higher During the Post-1989 Era of Globalization 
Source: World Bank, Robert Shiller, Neuberger Berman. As of December 2020. The pre- and post-1989 median price-to-earnings ratios were calculated by taking the mean average of 12 monthly readings for last-12-month earnings per share for each calendar year, and calculating the median average of those calendar-year readings for the two periods. For illustrative purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes a prediction or projection of future events or future market behavior. Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed or any historical results. Indices are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Equity and Fixed Income Climate Value at Risk in Three Different Global Warming Scenarios
Equity and Fixed Income Climate Value at Risk in Three Different Global Warming Scenarios 
Source: Neuberger Berman. As of August 2022. Neuberger Berman has implemented top-down scenario analysis for modelling transition risks (business risks associated with the net-zero transition), physical risks (from the impact of extreme weather events, wildfires and floods), regulatory costs and commercial opportunities at the company level, in line with the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), for different levels of global warming above pre-industrial temperatures. The Equity Benchmark is the MSCI All Country World Index; the Fixed Income Blended Benchmark is 50% Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index and 50% ICE BoA Global High Yield Index.
Investment Ideas
Favoring the fittest
Rethinking regional risk
Volatility-harvesting strategies
A considered approach
net-zero investing
Real estate and infrastructure
Commodities
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