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Solving for 2023: Back to the "Old Normal"
The leaders of our investment platforms identify what they believe will be the 10 key themes for the next 12 months. Access Replay
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TEN FOR 2023
Our investment leaders identify 10 key themes that they believe will be prominent in the markets over the next 12 months.
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PERSPECTIVES FROM OUR INVESTMENT LEADERS
Macro: Back to the “Old Normal”
1. A Year of Peaks and Troughs with
a Return to the “Old Normal”
We think the next 12 months are likely to see this cycle’s peaks in global inflation, central bank policy tightening, core government bond yields and market volatility; and troughs in GDP growth, corporate earnings growth and global equity market valuations…
2. Adjusting to Higher Rates
Continues to Disrupt
The cost of capital for individuals, corporations and sovereigns is going up. We believe the change is structural, and it is proving unusually large and unusually rapid. That raises the risk of a disruptive rather than orderly adjustment…
3. More De-Globalization
Manufacturing supply chains, commodity markets, financial systems, regulatory regimes, fiscal and monetary policy frameworks—we have seen them all become more integrated between 1980 and 2008, and more fragmented since...
4. Redoubled Efforts to Clarify “ESG”
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing became politicized in 2022—and even a new front in the “culture wars”—and to counter this, we believe more clarity is needed on the distinction between investing processes and investing outcomes…
 
Fixed Income: The Return of Market Discipline
5. Persistent Inflation Suggests
Persistent Bond Market Vigilance
We enter 2023 with high inflation and extreme levels of government debt. Against this background, we see bond investors standing up more strongly for their interests against policymakers and punishing policy inconsistencies…
6. Ability to Absorb Higher Rates
Likely to Dominate Credit
Floating-rate borrowers will need to adjust right away, but because we see structurally higher rates ahead, we think fixed-rate borrowers will eventually need to adjust, too. In our view, the sooner investors work higher-rates-for-longer into their credit analyses, the better…
 
Equities: Winners and Losers
7. Earnings Estimates Recalibrate
and Favor the Fittest
We think earnings estimates are likely to be revised down. We also think dispersion in earnings estimates will increase, as companies that are less exposed to labor and commodity costs and have more pricing power are better able to maintain margins…
8. Management Teams Re-focus
on Shareholder Value
When equity investors demand higher risk premia and bond yields present a meaningfully higher return hurdle, one way for company management teams to keep the cost of capital down is to re-focus on seeking to deliver tangible, near-term shareholder value …
 
Alternatives: Challenges Ahead, but Opportunities for the Nimble
9. More Dispersion in Private Markets
Performance
Private equity and debt funds, and their underlying portfolio companies, won’t be impervious to the ongoing slowdown. Such a challenging environment is likely to result in performance dispersion that tends to favor higher quality companies, management teams and growth plans…
10. A Growing Opportunity Set for
Opportunistic Investors
Market downturns tend to be favorable for providers of liquidity over holders of assets. Liquidity providers can be selective across liquid and illiquid alternatives and niche opportunistic strategies as valuations decline—or even dislocate…
INVESTMENT LEADERS
Back to the “Old Normal”
As 2022 ended, the leaders of our investment platforms gathered to talk about the evolution of the investment environment over the past 12 months and the key themes they anticipate for 2023.
Joseph V. Amato
President and Chief Investment Officer—Equities
Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA
Chief Investment Officer—Multi-Asset Class
Brad Tank
Chief Investment Officer—Fixed Income
Anthony Tutrone
Global Head of Alternatives
Joseph V. Amato, President and Chief Investment Officer—Equities

Joseph V. Amato serves as President of Neuberger Berman Group LLC and Chief Investment Officer of Equities. He is a member of the firm’s Board of Directors and its Audit Committee. His responsibilities also include overseeing the firm’s Fixed Income business. 

Previously, Joe served as Lehman Brothers’ Global Head of Asset Management and Head of its Neuberger Berman subsidiary, beginning in April 2006.  From 1996 through 2006, Joe held senior level positions within Lehman Brothers’ Capital Markets business, serving as Global Head of Equity Research for the majority of that time.  Joe joined Lehman Brothers in 1994 as Head of High Yield Research.  Prior to joining Lehman Brothers, Joe spent ten years at Kidder Peabody, ultimately as head of High Yield Research. 

He received his BS from Georgetown University and is a member of the University’s Board of Regents and the Business School’s Board of Advisors. He is also Co-Chair of the New York City Board of Advisors of Teach for America, a national non-profit organization focused on public education reform.

Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA, Chief Investment Officer—Multi-Asset Class
Erik L. Knutzen, CFA, CAIA and Managing Director, is Co-Head of the Neuberger Berman Quantitative and Multi-Asset investment team and Multi-Asset Chief Investment Officer. Erik joined in 2014 and is responsible for leading the management of multi-asset portfolios, driving the asset allocation process on a firm-wide level, as well as engaging with clients on strategic partnerships and multi-asset and quantitative solutions. Previously, Erik was with NEPC, LLC where he served as Chief Investment Officer since 2008. As CIO, he oversaw dedicated research teams focused on Alternative Investments, Traditional Strategies and Asset Allocation for NEPC’s client base with, collectively, more than $800 billion in assets under advisement. He has over 30 years of experience in the financial services industry. Erik holds an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BA from Williams College. He has been awarded the Chartered Financial Analyst and Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst designations. Erik is an Associate Editor of the Journal of Investing, is on the Investment Committee of the Massachusetts Audubon Society, and on the Board of Directors of the charity Start Small Think Big.
Brad Tank, Chief Investment Officer—Fixed Income
Brad Tank, Managing Director, joined the firm in 2002 and is the Chief Investment Officer and Global Head of Fixed Income. He is a member of Neuberger Berman’s Operating, Investment Risk, Asset Allocation Committees and Fixed Income’s Investment Strategy Committee, and leads the Fixed Income Multi-Sector Group. From inception in 2008 through 2015, Brad was also Chief Investment Officer of Neuberger Berman’s Multi-Asset Class Investment business and remains an important member of that team along with the firm’s other CIOs. From 1990 to2002, Brad was director of fixed income for Strong Capital Management in Wisconsin. He was also a member of the Office of the CEO and headed institutional and intermediary distribution. In 1997, Brad was named “Runner Up” for Morningstar Mutual Fund Manager of the Year. From 1982 to 1990, he was a vice president at Salomon Brothers in the government, mortgage and financial institutions areas. Brad earned a BBA and an MBA from the University of Wisconsin.

Anthony Tutrone, Global Head of Alternatives
Anthony Tutrone is the Global Head of NB Alternatives and a Managing Director of Neuberger Berman. He is a member of all Neuberger Berman Private Equity’s Investment Committees. Anthony is also a member of Neuberger Berman's Partnership, Operating, and Asset Allocation Committees. Prior to Neuberger Berman, from 1994 to 2001, Anthony was a Managing Director and founding member of The Cypress Group, a private equity firm focused on middle market buyouts that managed approximately $3.5 billion of commitments. Anthony began his career at Lehman Brothers in 1986, starting in Investment Banking and in 1987 becoming one of the original members of the firm’s Merchant Banking Group. This group managed a $1.2 billion private equity fund focused on middle market buyouts. He has been a member of the board of directors of several public and private companies and has sat on the advisory boards of several private equity funds. Anthony earned an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BA in Economics from Columbia University.
Ashok Bhatia, CFA
Deputy Chief Investment Officer—Fixed Income
Niall O’Sullivan
Chief Investment Officer, Multi Asset Strategies – EMEA
Ashok Bhatia, CFA, Deputy Chief Investment Officer—Fixed Income
Ashok K. Bhatia, CFA, Managing Director, joined the firm in 2017. Ashok is the Deputy Chief Investment Officer for Fixed Income. He is a lead portfolio manager on multi-sector fixed income strategies and is also a member of the Multi-Asset Class portfolio management team, the Fixed Income Investment Strategy Committee and the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee. Previously, Ashok has held senior investment and leadership positions in several asset management firms and hedge funds, including Wells Fargo Asset Management, Balyasny Asset Management, and Stark Investments. Ashok has had investment responsibilities across global fixed income and currency markets. Ashok began his career in 1993 as an investment analyst at Morgan Stanley. Ashok received a BA with high honors in Economics from the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, and an MBA with high honors from the University of Chicago. He has been awarded the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Niall O’Sullivan, Chief Investment Officer, Multi Asset Strategies – EMEA
Niall O’Sullivan, Managing Director and Chief Investment Officer of Multi-Asset Strategies for EMEA, joined the firm in 2022.Niall is responsible for the Multi-Asset team in EMEA with a key focus in leveraging the broad capabilities of the investment platform to create Multi-Asset investment solutions, delivering strong performance and solving client challenges. He is a member of the firm’s Asset Allocation Committee.Niall has more than 25 years’ experience managing investment portfolios and programs globally. Most recently, he worked with Mercer Investments for over a decade as Chief Investment Officer of their Outsourced CIO (OCIO) business for Europe and AMEA. Niall holds a M.Sc. in Investment & Treasury from Dublin City University and a B.A. (Mod) in Mathematics from Trinity College, where he was also a Foundation Scholar.
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