Diesel prices are likely to remain an economic headwind into 2023.

The Ukraine conflict and related Western sanctions on crude oil have been a focal point for investors, greatly affecting the global energy markets. However, we believe the more significant impacts have been to refined products, which are the finished goods of the oil industry, and specifically diesel.

Supply/demand dynamics for diesel have tightened and driven an extraordinary widening in the margin between prices for crude oil and refined diesel. Looking at the benchmark U.S. Gulf Coast diesel market, this difference ...