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Paid to Be Patient
It may be time to plan the journey back to risk, but not yet time to act—peak rates could still be disruptive, and they pay investors for proceeding carefully.
Silicon Valley Bank: Market Reaction and Implications
In this bulletin, we provide our view of the events of the last week and their implications for the bank sector.
From Policy Risk to Recession Risk
Markets have rallied, but the Asset Allocation Committee expects volatility to persist amidst slowing growth and uncertain paths for inflation and central bank policy.
Tighter Conditions Begin to Squeeze the Economy
As the economy slows, an epic climb in short-dated rates and bond yields appears to have shocked investors into accepting the prospect of stickier inflation, but they still seem reluctant to price for substantially lower earnings.
Into the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
Regime Change
While we do not anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, the prospect of slowing growth and stubborn inflation has led us to downgrade our view on equities, and prepare for a new regime in which real assets could generally perform better than financial assets such as stocks and bonds.
Hike Rates and Carry On
A positive economic outlook makes the case for holding risky assets through 2022, in our view, but higher rates are likely to mean higher volatility: we therefore favor a focus on income or “carry” from risky assets, alongside strategies with the potential to withstand price volatility.
Clearing the Hurdles
On a 12-month horizon, this looks to us like an attractive environment for risky assets, but the inflection point in the current cycle is proving particularly volatile: adopting a more defensive view in the short term could help investors clear the immediate hurdles.