Select Your Location
View available investments and insights in your market
Americas
Europe and the Middle East
Asia Pacific

Equity Market Outlook

1Q 2026
Macro Tailwinds Galore, But Mind the Risks
Plentiful stimulus, rising business confidence, improving loan growth, accelerating fundamentals and still-modest equity positioning could set the stage for a stronger economy and further equity gains, while risks from liquidity gyrations remain.

In the following collection of charts, we a) reaffirm our belief that supportive macroeconomic and capital-markets forces have the potential to drive further equity gains; b) address what we view as some of the more important risks to our thesis (including potential drawdowns that tend to accompany mid-term election years, as well as rising bond market volatility); and c) offer tactical portfolio guidance across various equity markets.

Key considerations, in our view, include:

  • Size: remain overweight Small Caps vs Large Caps
  • Style: overweight High Quality vs Low Quality
  • Regions (relative to MSCI ACWI): remain overweight ex-U.S. vs U.S.; upgrade India from underweight to overweight; and maintain overweights in China and Japan.

The Quick Case for Seeking High Quality

Over the last four decades, higher-quality stocks have consistently and significantly outperformed lower-quality stocks (see the left chart below). Yet there have been daunting exceptions: Six times during that same 40-year span, low-quality stocks have outpaced high-quality stocks by a median of 30% over 13 months (see the right chart). While timing low-quality mini-cycles with precision is hard, we believe we are in the later innings of the most recent low-quality run.



Higher Quality Has Tended to Outperform Over the Long Term, But It Has Been Occasionally Trounced By Low-Quality Runs That Have Lasted About a Year
EMO 1Q 2026 
 
EMO 1Q 2026
Source: Neuberger, Fama French Database and FactSet; data as of October 30, 2025. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For illustrative and discussion purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes a prediction or projection of future events or future market behavior. Due to a variety of factors, actual events or market behavior may differ significantly from any views expressed).

For a deeper dive into the entire collection of charts and analysis, please download our full report here.

binoculars iconDownload Our Outlook
Equity Market Outlook
1Q 2026
DOWNLOAD PDF