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Thoughts from our investment professionals on the evolving state of global markets and the macro economy

February 29, 2024
What’s Next In Semiconductors

As the “Magnificent 7” continue to capture the market’s imagination, we ponder what could be in store for global chipmakers.

Big tech companies have been reporting red-hot earnings, and AI remains all the rage. Among the Magnificent 7, semiconductor Nvidia’s fourth quarter revenue more than tripled, to $22.1 billion, smashing analysts’ expectations.

Such torrid performance, paired with the ongoing rise in groundbreaking technology, bolsters our belief that we are entering a golden age for semiconductors, with the most exciting developments yet to unfold.

February 28, 2024
It’s Yield…Not Spread

With spreads approaching their relative tights once again, can investment grade credit continue to shine?

With U.S. investment grade corporate debt starting 2024 on the heels of a very strong 2023 (+455 basis points of excess return and about 8.5% total return in 2023 per the Bloomberg U.S. Corporate Index) a natural question is, how much value remains? With spreads hovering at 90bps, most would probably argue that this is a fleeting exercise. A more pragmatic look at the market, however, offers an alternative perspective. 

February 21, 2024
A Turning Point in Sub-Prime Credit

The percentage of past-due loans to riskier consumers has begun to flatten, while newly issued paper is carrying higher interest rates.

After a challenging period of rising loan losses, we believe selective pockets of the consumer-credit market could be firming up.

Consumer credit spans everything from student and auto loans to credit cards and home-improvement loans. This debt is sorted into categories by FICO score, including sub-prime (less than 620), near-prime (620-660), prime (660 -720) and super-prime (more than 720).

In 2022, overall consumer-loan losses rose from modest ...

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