We believe twin slowdowns in economic growth and global liquidity could weigh on various risk assets in the second half of 2025.

Rapidly accelerating economic growth in 2Q 2025, combined with a massive first-half surge in global liquidity, fueled an against-all-odds rally in equity markets since their April trough. Now economic growth appears to be slowing and liquidity looks to be nearing a peak—two consequential shifts that, in our view, demand close attention and strategic adjustment in the latter half of the year.

In this new collection of charts, we explore the potential impacts of growth and liquidity on equities and other risk assets in 2H 2025.

  • Equities. As liquidity-driven markets fade, equity gains may depend more on earnings growth than multiple expansion, suggesting that stocks with lower valuations and stronger cash flows may prove more resilient.
  • Other Risk Assets. HY credit spreads could widen, raising borrowing costs and putting pressure on weaker companies. Additionally, real estate and other yield-driven assets may face headwinds as access to easy money further diminishes.
  • Portfolio Considerations. We recommend greater exposure to higher-quality, lower-beta and moderately valued stocks and sectors, while reducing exposure to longer-duration, interest-rate-sensitive and higher-beta sectors. Furthermore, with volatility potentially set to rise in 2H 2025, we also recommend reducing portfolio leverage and managing risk by focusing on corporate fundamentals, maintaining diversification and closely monitoring signals from central banks.

For a deeper dive into the data, please see the presentation below.