2024 was a time of historic elections affecting over 70 countries. Whether the Labour victory in Britain, electoral gains by the far left and right in France or legislative losses by India’s ruling party, the stories together painted a picture of populist shifts and a willingness to cast out incumbents to foment change. Among all the contests, few were as significant as Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S., with the potential for impacts across the country’s regulatory environment, tax structure and trade, with potentially global consequences (see display below).
Fixed income investors should be considering all of these trends as the year progresses, in assessing impacts on inflation, rates, geographies and issuers. In our view, it seems likely that the policy environment will be eventful in the coming year and beyond—potentially generating price volatility, but also opening up opportunities for those with the ability and desire to capitalize through the timely use of capital.
Learn more in our latest Fixed Income Investment Outlook
Changes Under Trump Could Have Far-Reaching Consequences
Sources: Barclays, Bloomberg.