Insights
Video
The Inside Track - Public and Private Markets Outlook; Episode 3: The Credit Continuum
(08:27) In this short video, experts from our public and private markets teams share their outlook on credit markets.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Return of Industrial Policy
As governments play a bigger role in the economy, we think businesses and investors will need to think more about inflation, location and taxation.Insights
Solving for 2024: 10 Key Themes to Navigate the Markets
Each year, our investment leaders identify 10 key themes that they believe will be prominent in the markets over the next 12 months.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Geopolitical Shocks and Portfolio Construction
Investors should try to respond not to the events of the past week, but to the deeper global trends they reflect.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Higher for Longer, Longer the Stronger
“Savings depletion and weakness among small-cap and regional bank stocks suggest that the U.S. economy may not be as strong as it seems.”CIO Weekly Perspectives
Long the Strong
The prolonged adjustment to higher rates is just beginning, and we think it will likely be more painful for some than others.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Sprint to Year-End
As the September starting gun sounds, here’s what we are looking out for on the track ahead.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Working the Margins
While this is no time to be making major calls on asset allocation, in our view, there are abundant opportunities for generating incremental returns.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Consumer and the Stock Market
As the “wealth effect” is driven less by house prices and more by investment markets, it may change our views on asset valuations and portfolio construction.Insights
Ten for 2023—Midyear Update
We check in on the key themes we anticipated from the economy and markets in 2023.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Bridge to the Future
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading is the epic story of the building of the Brooklyn Bridge, resonant with dilemmas we still recognize today.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Engine Running, Shifting to Neutral
In the face of conflicting signals from our short- and medium-term outlooks, our Asset Allocation Committee is adopting more neutral views.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Meaning Behind the Mean
The headline characteristics of today’s market obscure a wealth of opportunity, in both public and private markets.White Paper
The Fine Print of Indexation
A look at opportunity costs, long-term risks and complementary solutionsPodcast
Commodities and Their Place in the Transition Pathway
(29:08) While commodities have been known to be a great inflation hedge, can this asset class also align with meeting the objectives of investors concerned about their environmental and social footprint?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Going Back to Base
In the face of conflicting signals from our short- and medium-term outlooks, our Asset Allocation Committee is adopting more neutral views.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Tactics and Strategy
We tend to think about diversifying across asset classes, sectors and regions, but diversifying across investment timeframes can add value, too.Video
The Inside Track - Public and Private Markets Outlook; Episode 2: Commercial Real Estate
(9:15) In this short video experts from our public and private markets teams consider the outlook for commercial real estate.Insights
"Investing at a Crossroads" Revisited
Nine months ago, we set out a playbook for the transition to the new investing environment—here’s why it still applies as the rates cycle peaks and inflation eases.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Resolving the Puzzle
To make sense of today’s market conundrum, remember that things could have been worse than they are, and that investors are more defensive than they appear.CIO Weekly Perspectives
What ‘Data-Dependent’ Feels Like
As central banks become more “data-dependent,” will monetary policy become less predictable and markets potentially more volatile?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Trip Hazards
The U.S. debt ceiling is just one of a long list of obstacles waiting to trip up markets, and there is very little opportunity cost for remaining cautious.CIO Weekly Perspectives
A New ‘Impossible Trilemma’?
Can we lower government debt, sustain positive real rates and finance the transition to a low-carbon economy?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Turning, Not Re-Turning
It makes sense to prepare for the turning point in this cycle—but not by returning to the winners from the last cycle.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Central Banks Tighten, Markets Loosen
While some pessimism has lifted from central bank messaging, we still think the market may be hearing only what it wants to hear.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Practical Implications of the New Regime
You’ve pinned down your economic and market outlook, but what does it imply for your investment strategy—and how much of that is realistic?Podcast
The Portfolio Doctor Is In
(30:31) Now that a new year is upon us, we explore the tactics of seeking to craft attractive portfolios as we continue to see a path of volatility in 2023.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Macro Versus Micro
Top-down and bottom-up forecasts are increasingly diverging, and we think 2023 will be largely about how these divergences resolve themselves.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Outlook 2023
The leaders of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2023.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Escape From Flatland
A two-dimensional, return-and-volatility view of investments may not allow you to see important risks.Podcast
Bank of Japan: The G-10 Outlier
(20:13) As economies around the world are dealing with the effects of inflation, we evaluate an outlier with a particularly dovish stance…CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.Insights
Solving for 2023: Back to the "Old Normal"
Our senior investment leaders discuss their market and investment themes for the coming year.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Divergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Tighter Conditions Begin to Squeeze the Economy
As the economy slows, an epic climb in short-dated rates and bond yields appears to have shocked investors into accepting the prospect of stickier inflation, but they still seem reluctant to price for substantially lower earnings.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Be Wary of Bear Market Rallies
We may want to be optimistic about inflation and rates, but that only delays the hard questions we are likely to face as we enter the new economic era.Podcast
Investing at a Crossroads
(23:19) How could asset allocators change their approach with the goal of achieving compelling outcomes amid today’s investment landscape?White Paper
Investing at a Crossroads: Three Themes for Today’s New Challenges
As 40-year tailwinds turn to headwinds, we distill an era of sometimes bewildering change into three themes and a new investment playbook.Insights
Managing the Risks of a Low-Carbon Portfolio
We recognize that much of the world still runs on fossil fuel. However, we firmly believe investors can construct portfolios that substantially reduce their carbon footprints while retaining exposure to all sectors—including energy.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Hold the Inflation Victory Lap
Inflation still appears to be the biggest source of potential volatility in the market, and we think that’s because it will remain the dominant economic story for the foreseeable future.White Paper
The Case for Unconstrained Multi-Asset Portfolios: Navigating the Challenges of Public-Private Investing
As investors navigate the challenges of integrating public and private markets we believe a single, unconstrained multi-asset portfolio can deliver a more efficient and opportunistic solution.Systematically Speaking
The Unsurprisingly Volatile Business of Bitcoin Mining
Why we think the technicalities of Bitcoin mining explain much of Bitcoin’s extraordinary volatility profile.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Nominal and the Real
What might be the playbook for a potential recession in which nominal GDP grows by 8%—and are investors only just recognizing that they need one?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Ukraine and the Path to Deglobalization
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading offers a reminder of Ukraine’s millennia-old importance for global trade, helping us understand why today’s conflict could be yet another lasting blow against globalization.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Into the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Reasons for Optimism
Caution may be warranted during the uncertainty of the next quarter—but after markets have sold off so much, does it really make sense to be more pessimistic now than at the start of this year?Article Reprint
Private Markets—From Alternative to Mainstream
In the June 2022 30th Anniversary Issue of Journal of Investing, Erik Knutzen, CIO—Multi-Asset, details the evolution of private markets over the last three decades and highlights the key trends and challenges anticipated for the future.Systematically Speaking
Rising Rates and Risk Premia
In a very challenging environment for long-only investors, long/short risk premia have delivered attractive returns—but not always in the way history would have led us to expect.Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
Regime Change
While we do not anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, the prospect of slowing growth and stubborn inflation has led us to downgrade our view on equities, and prepare for a new regime in which real assets could generally perform better than financial assets such as stocks and bonds.White Paper
Integrated Liquidity Management for Private Markets Programs
As allocations to private markets grow, so do the cashflow, liquidity and “j-curve” challenges of capital calls and distributions. How might investors set aside assets to fund commitments without disrupting other parts of their portfolios, and without sacrificing too much return potential?Insights
The Most Important Rate in the Whole Wide World
Markets may be missing the importance of record-low real rates, and the potential impact if they start to rise.Video
Solving for 2022: Erik Knutzen on Macro
(4:12) As 2021 concludes, the leaders of our investment platforms got together to debate and identify the key themes that they think will guide investment decisions in 2022.Insights
Solving for 2022: Entering a New Age
Our senior investment leaders look to the coming year in the global economy and markets.Insights
Laying the Foundations: Understanding Current Real Estate Dynamics
From de-urbanization to e-commerce, three heads of our real estate teams debate key sector trends.Podcast
Playing Good Defense in Diversification
(18:54) The idiom, “Don’t put your eggs in one basket” might come to mind when it comes to diversification, but how might investors want to go about heeding those timeless words of advice?Insights
Ten for 2021—Midyear Update
We check in on the key themes we anticipated from the economy and markets in 2021.Podcast
Post-Crisis Investing for the Long Haul
(17:32) Looking to macroeconomics, we evaluate if investors are now at a market inflection point and what the associated implications are that could lie ahead.Insights
The Bitcoin Experiment
Recent appreciation in the cryptocurrency may be tantalizing, but understanding the dynamics behind this speculative asset is crucial before considering it as a potential investment.Insights
Inside TaxM™: Transferring Concentrated, Low-Basis Positions to TaxM™ Accounts
This is the first in a series of articles in which we explore the considerations and mechanics associated with making new investments in tax-managed accounts.Podcast
Solving for 2021: An Inside Look
(16:34) As 2020 comes to a close, we reflect on the volatile year we have had and look forward to the year ahead, as detailed in our annual investment outlook, Solving for 2021.Insights
You May Be Generating Tax Credits Without Realizing It
Actively managing equity portfolios for tax efficiency not only aims to maximizes tax credits—it may reveal tax credits you didn’t know you already had.Insights
Don’t Be A Turkey
Like the festive bird in December, investors may want to ask how much better things can get.Podcast
Brexit Means Brexit: But What Could That Mean for Portfolios?
(14:55) As Brexit has gone into effect this year shortly before the COVID-19 crisis hit the globe, what do we think investors could now be considering in a post-Brexit economy?Insights
Epic Battle or Rope-a-Dope?
Identifying the winner of the rumble between ‘The Japanifier’ and ‘The Stimulator’ is likely to be the key determinant in successful portfolio construction for years to come.Insights
Four Things to Remember in a Market Downturn
Volatility, diversification and the merits of long-term investingArticle Reprint
Neuberger Berman Gets Its Sherlock On
Maarten Nederlof, Head of Portfolio Solutions (Americas) at Neuberger Berman, discusses how he is seeking to help clients achieve a better understanding of alpha, traditional premia and alternative premia in their investments, and assisting clients in better managing risk and addressing gaps in portfolio exposures.White Paper
Mitigating Inflation Risk at Lower Opportunity Cost
Inflation-mitigating allocations can drag on returns when inflation is subdued: diversifying and tactical allocation can help.Podcast
Late Cycle Investing: What’s Next?
(16:51) What can investors expect as the next downturn seems inevitable?Insights
Ten for 2019—Midyear Update
The heads of our four investment platforms revisit the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2019.Insights
Late-Cycle Investing: Re-Assess Strategic Asset Allocation
The challenge of maintaining exposure to growth potential without losing control of risk.Insights
Late-Cycle Investing: Identify Through-Cycle Themes
Look for investments whose performance is not primarily determined by the business cycle, or whose dynamics supersede or “look through” that cycle.White Paper
Survive and Thrive: Late-Cycle Investing
Late-cycle is arguably the most challenging time for investors and asset allocators.Insights
Late-Cycle Investing: Distinguish Signals from Noise
How to tell when late-cycle is turning over into end-cycle? Two places: look at data coming from the real economy and at indicators from financial markets.Insights
