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Disruptive Forces in Investing Podcast
December 2022
Bank of Japan: The G-10 Outlier
(20:13) As economies around the world are dealing with the effects of inflation, we evaluate an outlier with a particularly dovish stance…
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2022
The Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.
Insights
November 2022
Solving for 2023: Back to the "Old Normal"
Our senior investment leaders discuss their market and investment themes for the coming year.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2022
Divergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
October 2022
Tighter Conditions Begin to Squeeze the Economy
As the economy slows, an epic climb in short-dated rates and bond yields appears to have shocked investors into accepting the prospect of stickier inflation, but they still seem reluctant to price for substantially lower earnings.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2022
Be Wary of Bear Market Rallies
We may want to be optimistic about inflation and rates, but that only delays the hard questions we are likely to face as we enter the new economic era.
Disruptive Forces in Investing Podcast
September 2022
Investing at a Crossroads
(23:19) How could asset allocators change their approach with the goal of achieving compelling outcomes amid today’s investment landscape?
White Paper
September 2022
Investing at a Crossroads: Three Themes for Today’s New Challenges
As 40-year tailwinds turn to headwinds, we distill an era of sometimes bewildering change into three themes and a new investment playbook.
Insights
September 2022
Managing the Risks of a Low-Carbon Portfolio
We recognize that much of the world still runs on fossil fuel. However, we firmly believe investors can construct portfolios that substantially reduce their carbon footprints while retaining exposure to all sectors—including energy.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2022
Hold the Inflation Victory Lap
Inflation still appears to be the biggest source of potential volatility in the market, and we think that’s because it will remain the dominant economic story for the foreseeable future.
White Paper
September 2022
The Case for Unconstrained Multi-Asset Portfolios: Navigating the Challenges of Public-Private Investing
As investors navigate the challenges of integrating public and private markets we believe a single, unconstrained multi-asset portfolio can deliver a more efficient and opportunistic solution.
Systematically Speaking
August 2022
The Unsurprisingly Volatile Business of Bitcoin Mining
Why we think the technicalities of Bitcoin mining explain much of Bitcoin’s extraordinary volatility profile.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2022
The Nominal and the Real
What might be the playbook for a potential recession in which nominal GDP grows by 8%—and are investors only just recognizing that they need one?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2022
Ukraine and the Path to Deglobalization
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading offers a reminder of Ukraine’s millennia-old importance for global trade, helping us understand why today’s conflict could be yet another lasting blow against globalization.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
July 2022
Into the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2022
Reasons for Optimism
Caution may be warranted during the uncertainty of the next quarter—but after markets have sold off so much, does it really make sense to be more pessimistic now than at the start of this year?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2022
After the Revaluation, the Slowdown
Our Asset Allocation Committee believes that, whether we enter a recession or not, the expected slowdown and ongoing market volatility could feel like one for investors.
Article Reprint
June 2022
Private Markets—From Alternative to Mainstream
In the June 2022 30th Anniversary Issue of Journal of Investing, Erik Knutzen, CIO—Multi-Asset, details the evolution of private markets over the last three decades and highlights the key trends and challenges anticipated for the future.
Systematically Speaking
May 2022
Rising Rates and Risk Premia
In a very challenging environment for long-only investors, long/short risk premia have delivered attractive returns—but not always in the way history would have led us to expect.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2022
Two Perspectives on the Sell-Off
We see signs that many investors are changing the way they think about the current sell-off—and that might challenge the way you think about the balance of risk.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2022
The Rising Costs of a Drawn-Out War
Financial markets may not ebb and flow with major developments on the battlefield anymore, but we believe they do still need to come to terms with the war’s lasting inflationary impact.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
April 2022
Regime Change
While we do not anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, the prospect of slowing growth and stubborn inflation has led us to downgrade our view on equities, and prepare for a new regime in which real assets could generally perform better than financial assets such as stocks and bonds.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2022
Value Can Potentially Outperform Even if Growth Slows
We believe value is likely to outperform growth over the coming years—and threats to economic growth from inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks do not change our view.
White Paper
February 2022
Integrated Liquidity Management for Private Markets Programs
As allocations to private markets grow, so do the cashflow, liquidity and “j-curve” challenges of capital calls and distributions. How might investors set aside assets to fund commitments without disrupting other parts of their portfolios, and without sacrificing too much return potential?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 2022
Conflict and Commodities
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds an unwelcome geopolitical layer to the inflation challenge, and yet another reason to reintroduce commodities to the asset allocation mix.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2022
Solving for a Year of Inflections
The Solving for 2022 delegates voted on what they think will be this year’s best-performing investment category—and here’s why we think they are right.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 2022
Outlook 2022
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2022.
Insights
December 2021
The Most Important Rate in the Whole Wide World
Markets may be missing the importance of record-low real rates, and the potential impact if they start to rise.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2021
The Fight Against Inflation Has Begun
We think that inflation, central bank policy and real rates will define the battlefield for markets in 2022—but will the most volatile skirmishes come sooner or later in the year?
Video
December 2021
Solving for 2022: Erik Knutzen on Macro
(4:12) As 2021 concludes, the leaders of our investment platforms got together to debate and identify the key themes that they think will guide investment decisions in 2022.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 2021
Real Rates Are the Key to This Cycle
Most of the consensus trades for 2021 failed in the second half of the year, and we think understanding why could be critical to unlocking the rest of this unique cycle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2021
Inflation Could Unbalance Policy and Portfolios
As inflation pressures build and investors question central bank policies, we think it’s increasingly important to diversify against market volatility and rising prices.
Insights
November 2021
Solving for 2022: Entering a New Age
Our senior investment leaders look to the coming year in the global economy and markets.
Insights
October 2021
Laying the Foundations: Understanding Current Real Estate Dynamics
From de-urbanization to e-commerce, three heads of our real estate teams debate key sector trends.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2021
Caution Today, Opportunity Tomorrow
We think a more cautious stance represents a prudent approach to an already volatile inflection point between early-cycle recovery and mid-cycle expansion.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2021
This Is Not a 60/40 Environment
The shift to a mid-cycle expansion beset with unusually high levels of uncertainty could bring a new test for asset allocators.
Disruptive Forces in Investing Podcast
August 2021
Playing Good Defense in Diversification
(18:54) The idiom, “Don’t put your eggs in one basket” might come to mind when it comes to diversification, but how might investors want to go about heeding those timeless words of advice?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2021
On the Joy of Being Wrong
Think Again, by Adam Grant, is Erik Knutzen’s recommendation for this year’s summer vacation reading.
Insights
July 2021
Ten for 2021—Midyear Update
We check in on the key themes we anticipated from the economy and markets in 2021.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2021
Reconciling the Data and the Markets
Inflation is up, Treasury yields are down, and the recovery trade is on the ropes—we believe it’s all more evidence of a fiercely debating, two-way market.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2021
Two-Way Markets Are Back
After nearly a year going up in a straight line, questions about inflation, the economic cycle and central bank messaging have brought more push and pull back into markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2021
Roaring Twenties, or Back to the Late Teens?
This is a truly singular global recession and recovery, and it makes portfolio diversification both vital and challenging.
Disruptive Forces in Investing Podcast
May 2021
Post-Crisis Investing for the Long Haul
(17:32) Looking to macroeconomics, we evaluate if investors are now at a market inflection point and what the associated implications are that could lie ahead.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2021
Pausing for Breath on ‘Peak Growth’
Rates of change in economic data may be hitting their peaks, but that need not preclude more long-term upside for risky assets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2021
Japan Could Win a Medal in the Recovery Race
A strong manufacturing base and changing attitudes toward shareholder value could mean the world’s capital heads to Japan, even if the world’s sports fans cannot.
Insights
March 2021
The Bitcoin Experiment
Recent appreciation in the cryptocurrency may be tantalizing, but understanding the dynamics behind this speculative asset is crucial before considering it as a potential investment.
Insights
February 2021
Inside TaxM™: Transferring Concentrated, Low-Basis Positions to TaxM™ Accounts
This is the first in a series of articles in which we explore the considerations and mechanics associated with making new investments in tax-managed accounts.
Disruptive Forces in Investing Podcast
December 2020
Solving for 2021: An Inside Look
(16:34) As 2020 comes to a close, we reflect on the volatile year we have had and look forward to the year ahead, as detailed in our annual investment outlook, Solving for 2021.
Insights
December 2020
You May Be Generating Tax Credits Without Realizing It
Actively managing equity portfolios for tax efficiency not only aims to maximizes tax credits—it may reveal tax credits you didn’t know you already had.
Insights
December 2020
Don’t Be A Turkey
Like the festive bird in December, investors may want to ask how much better things can get.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 2020
A Heartfelt Thanksgiving
We emerge from the holiday hopeful for a Season of Goodwill in markets, but ready for any last surprises that 2020 might have in store.
Insights
November 2020
Solving for 2021: The World After the Coronavirus
Our senior investment leaders look to the coming year in the global economy and markets.
Disruptive Forces in Investing Podcast
November 2020
Brexit Means Brexit: But What Could That Mean for Portfolios?
(14:55) As Brexit has gone into effect this year shortly before the COVID-19 crisis hit the globe, what do we think investors could now be considering in a post-Brexit economy?
Video
October 2020
The Four U.S. Election Scenarios with Erik Knutzen
(3:34) As we approach the 2020 U.S. election and its upcoming result, Erik Knutzen, CIO—Multi-Asset Class, dives into the possible scenarios and discusses the economic implications of what could happen with each hypothetical outcome.
Insights
September 2020
Epic Battle or Rope-a-Dope?
Identifying the winner of the rumble between ‘The Japanifier’ and ‘The Stimulator’ is likely to be the key determinant in successful portfolio construction for years to come.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2020
The Fed Keeps Adapting
A shift in policy highlights central bank commitment as the economy seeks to regain its footing.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2020
Chernobyl and My COVID-19 Summer
The acclaimed drama reminds us of the possibility of the highly improbable, and the importance of clear assessment of difficult facts in a crisis.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 2020
A Strong Recovery Is Not Necessarily a Full One
A run of positive economic data surprises, while welcome, should not distract us from the long struggle ahead.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 2020
Not Out of the Woods
The discipline of scenario planning helps us focus on what has been achieved, rather than what we hope will be achieved.
CIO Update
April 2020
Recovery Scenarios and Emerging Themes
(4:39) Erik Knutzen shares insights on navigating the range of paths through the recovery and our playbook for capitalizing on investment themes.
CIO Update
April 2020
Macro Insights and Asset Allocation
(4:17) Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer – Multi-Asset Class Strategies, discusses why he believes the market volatility that has characterized this environment will continue to persist along with highlighting select areas that may present opportunities for investors.
CIO Update
March 2020
Macro Insights and Asset Allocation
(6:35) Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer – Multi-Asset Class Strategies, discusses the impact of last week’s Fed actions and stimulus package along with how this decline is different than 2008 in terms of markets and investment implications.
Insights
March 2020
Four Things to Remember in a Market Downturn
Volatility, diversification and the merits of long-term investing
CIO Update
March 2020
Macro Insights and Asset Allocation
(6:06) Erik Knutzen, Chief Investment Officer – Multi Asset Class Strategies, discusses uncertainties facing investors and where they may turn to seek “quality investments and quality yields” when re-allocating risk assets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 2020
Prepare for the Long Haul
Why the major uncertainties twisting markets out of shape today are likely to persist for months.
Article Reprint
February 2020
Neuberger Berman Gets Its Sherlock On
Maarten Nederlof, Head of Portfolio Solutions (Americas) at Neuberger Berman, discusses how he is seeking to help clients achieve a better understanding of alpha, traditional premia and alternative premia in their investments, and assisting clients in better managing risk and addressing gaps in portfolio exposures.
White Paper
February 2020
Mitigating Inflation Risk at Lower Opportunity Cost
Inflation-mitigating allocations can drag on returns when inflation is subdued: diversifying and tactical allocation can help.
Insights
November 2019
Solving for 2020: "Fiscal Dysfunction" Unmasked
The heads of our investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2020.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 2019
Challenges Ahead
The events and data of recent weeks make us want to err on the side of caution.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 2019
Reversal
Gloomy market trends have collapsed. So, are investors less gloomy about the economy?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 2019
Navigating Summer Squalls
Managing volatility and maximizing opportunities in the late cycle.
Disruptive Forces in Investing Podcast
August 2019
Late Cycle Investing: What’s Next?
(16:51) What can investors expect as the next downturn seems inevitable?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 2019
Factful Optimism
Why I am packing Hans Rosling’s Factfulness for this year’s vacation reading.
Insights
July 2019
Ten for 2019—Midyear Update
The heads of our four investment platforms revisit the key themes they anticipated would guide investment decisions in 2019.
Insights
July 2019
Investing Deep in the Cycle
As the US economic expansion moves past the decade mark, we offer three ideas to help keep portfolios on course.
Insights
May 2019
Late-Cycle Investing: Distinguish Signals from Noise
How to tell when late-cycle is turning over into end-cycle? Two places: look at data coming from the real economy and at indicators from financial markets.
Insights
May 2019
Late-Cycle Investing: Be Prepared to Provide Market Liquidity
Illiquidity poses risks, but may also generate opportunity for those prepared to provide market liquidity.
Insights
May 2019
Late-Cycle Investing: Re-Assess Strategic Asset Allocation
The challenge of maintaining exposure to growth potential without losing control of risk.
Insights
May 2019
Late-Cycle Investing: Identify Through-Cycle Themes
Look for investments whose performance is not primarily determined by the business cycle, or whose dynamics supersede or “look through” that cycle.
White Paper
May 2019
Survive and Thrive: Late-Cycle Investing
Late-cycle is arguably the most challenging time for investors and asset allocators.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2019
Storm Warnings Over the Atlantic
Our geopolitical risk focus turns to Europe—and trade conflict with the U.S. looms largest.
Insights
January 2019
Solving for 2019: A Gentle Descent Back Into Balance
Our senior investment leaders look to the coming year in the global economy and markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 2018
Pent-Up Energy
Late-cycle support and attractive valuations could release the potential of commodity stocks.