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Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
October 2022
Tighter Conditions Begin to Squeeze the Economy
As the economy slows, an epic climb in short-dated rates and bond yields appears to have shocked investors into accepting the prospect of stickier inflation, but they still seem reluctant to price for substantially lower earnings.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
July 2022
Into the Inflationary Slowdown
As inflation persists and recession risks rise, our Asset Allocation Committee sees more yield potential in fixed income and favors commodities for ongoing inflation exposure, but remains cautious in equities.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
April 2022
Regime Change
While we do not anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, the prospect of slowing growth and stubborn inflation has led us to downgrade our view on equities, and prepare for a new regime in which real assets could generally perform better than financial assets such as stocks and bonds.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
January 2022
Hike Rates and Carry On
A positive economic outlook makes the case for holding risky assets through 2022, in our view, but higher rates are likely to mean higher volatility: we therefore favor a focus on income or “carry” from risky assets, alongside strategies with the potential to withstand price volatility.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
October 2021
Clearing the Hurdles
On a 12-month horizon, this looks to us like an attractive environment for risky assets, but the inflection point in the current cycle is proving particularly volatile: adopting a more defensive view in the short term could help investors clear the immediate hurdles.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
July 2021
From Hanging Ten to Choppy Waves
Does a change in the weather forecast at the Federal Reserve signal an end to the early stage of this recovery cycle?
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
April 2021
The Temperature’s Rising
As Treasury yields climb and assets geared to the recovery race ahead, the Asset Allocation Committee asks, will the economy overheat, and should investors consider rebalancing?
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
January 2021
A Tentative Recovery
The arrival of coronavirus vaccines means the economy should eventually get out of its sickbed but, faced with risks on both the upside and the downside, the Asset Allocation Committee thinks investors should take things steady.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
October 2020
Bracing for Winter, Looking Forward to Spring
Anticipated near-term volatility around the U.S. election and the path of coronavirus may present opportunities to position for an improvement in sentiment in 2021.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
July 2020
Venturing Out
Like societies emerging from lockdown, the AAC is venturing out, cautiously.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
May 2020
Special Update: At the Peak of the Curve
After an apparently strong and rapid equity market rally in April, Neuberger Berman’s AAC reconvenes to reassess its views.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
April 2020
Contagion
Should investors consider loading up on the riskiest assets when markets begin to stabilize? After a valuation adjustment of this magnitude, that probably isn’t necessary. The markets are unlikely to run away from us.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
January 2020
Risks Rebalanced
A less cautious stance, with upgrades for pro-cyclical sectors and regions—including non-U.S. equity markets, U.S. credit, and emerging markets debt and equity.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
October 2019
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 4Q2019: Two-Tier Growth Revisited
As the markets exhibit two-tier performance and the global economy edges back toward two-tier growth, the AAC has adopted a two-tier view.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
July 2019
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 3Q2019: Beneath the Surface
Headline economic data and index performance conceal more interesting stories of complexity and opportunity.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
April 2019
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q2019: On the Wings of a Dove
Markets soared on the wings of a central-bank dove during 1Q, but the engines of the global economy must spark back to life if we are to remain airborne.
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook
January 2019
Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 1Q2019: Fundamental Laws
Do we share the market’s recent lack of confidence in global fundamentals? No—and here’s why.