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CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 08, 2019
Holiday Spending
Shoppers are out in force, but are businesses and governments catching the holiday spending spirit, too?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 01, 2019
Lat-Am Spring?
The succession of political upheavals in South America resist easy categorization.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 24, 2019
Social Tensions
Social media makes political risk turn up in unexpected places, with more sudden impact—and portfolios may be more exposed than we realize.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 17, 2019
The Political Economy
As confidence in the economic data grows, wariness about political uncertainty and “fiscal dysfunction” is as elevated as it has been in years.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 10, 2019
Catch-Up Potential for EM FX
As growth bottoms out and tail risks ease, attractive valuations support the case for emerging markets currencies.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 03, 2019
Buying Time
Consumers and central banks need help from businesses and governments to sustain the economy.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 27, 2019
Mercury Too High, Rates Too Low
At the World Bank and IMF annual meetings, two concerns dominated: climate change and negative interest rates.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 20, 2019
Time to Get Off the Sidelines?
Things may be bottoming out.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 13, 2019
Challenges Ahead
The events and data of recent weeks make us want to err on the side of caution.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 06, 2019
Recession in the Making?
Jobs market data suggests that the manufacturing slowdown is not metastasizing into full recession—for now.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 29, 2019
Building Momentum
We believe the underappreciated growth story in REITs has many years yet to play out.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 22, 2019
Resilient or Reckless?
Extraordinary events are buffeting markets, but equity indices sail on.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 15, 2019
Reversal
Gloomy market trends have collapsed. So, are investors less gloomy about the economy?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 08, 2019
Collateral Damage
China and the U.S. are perhaps the biggest source of current investment risk, but not the most exposed.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 01, 2019
Toxic Mix of Politics and Policy
It’s official: We’ve moved into another dimension.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 25, 2019
Navigating Summer Squalls
Managing volatility and maximizing opportunities in the late cycle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 18, 2019
Forget the Barometer
We don’t need an inverted yield curve to tell us a global manufacturing downturn may be underway.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 11, 2019
Dog Days of August?
News flow has turned ugly again, but equity markets are a long way from irrational exuberance.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 04, 2019
Opportunity Knocks in Inflation
As investors take temporarily weak inflation to be structural, it creates potential value in TIPS.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 28, 2019
Factful Optimism
Why I am packing Hans Rosling’s Factfulness for this year’s vacation reading.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 21, 2019
The Final Approach
Last week’s data shows that we may be levelling out for a soft landing.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 14, 2019
Don’t Fight the Fed
Brace for the first rate cut in a decade—but don’t get dragged along by it.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 07, 2019
Hidden Value
Lagging small caps indicate that, beneath the record-high S&P 500, all may not be as placid as it seems.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 30, 2019
Buck Down to Earth
Is recent U.S. dollar weakness a resumption of the downtrend that started at the end of 2016?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 23, 2019
Do We Really Need Lower Rates?
They may discourage the fiscal reform and corporate investment that the economy needs.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 16, 2019
The Narrative Arc
Late-cycle data points are noisy and inconclusive, and the stories we tell about them don’t always add up.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 09, 2019
The Powell Put
Was last week’s bounce for risk assets a mere taste of what’s to come if the Fed cuts rates this year?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 02, 2019
Wrestling in the Markets
Slowing growth, low yields and geopolitical maneuvers are making for quite a spectacle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 26, 2019
Still Emerging
News flow may be distracting from emerging markets’ attractive, mid-cycle fundamentals and valuations.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 19, 2019
News Cycle vs. Business Cycle
Trade talks are important and may cause volatility, but they should not determine portfolio strategy.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 12, 2019
Tariffied
Is the U.S.-China deal dead, and how bad might this get for risk assets?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 05, 2019
On the Meaning of “Transitory”
The Fed Chair has been stretching semantics on inflation, but his growth outlook mirrors ours.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 28, 2019
Earning Sustainable Gains
Human tragedy, financial damage, regulatory tightening and people power are driving ESG up the agenda.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 21, 2019
Time to Rethink Euro-Pessimism
Threats to euro-zone growth are now more external than internal.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 14, 2019
Storm Warnings Over the Atlantic
Our geopolitical risk focus turns to Europe—and trade conflict with the U.S. looms largest.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 07, 2019
A Higher Degree of Debt
Should we worry about bubbles in leveraged loans, BBBs—or the Millennials’ student debt burden?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 31, 2019
Bonds vs. Stocks: Which Market Is Right?
Is the bond market cautious or confused? Is the equity market confident or complacent?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 24, 2019
Is ‘Goldilocks’ Back?
As the Fed turns more dovish, a familiar fairytale heroine returns—but will there be another happy ending?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 17, 2019
Clearing the Hurdles
The ECB’s accommodative stance removes one more obstacle from a global soft landing.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 10, 2019
Five Eyes on 5G
The spy stories reveal 5G as a true strategic asset and an investment theme whose time has come.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 03, 2019
Political Theater
Political dramas are coming to a head, but we think this economic cycle still has an act or two to play out.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 24, 2019
Good News, Bad News and Walls of Worry
For investors, the mature part of this cycle may feel like the rest of the cycle writ large.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 17, 2019
False Signals, Real Opportunity
What Wall Street’s earnings results tell us about credit market opportunities.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 10, 2019
The V in Volatility
The equity rally is likely just the start of a volatile adjustment to a new fundamental reality.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 03, 2019
From Brussels With Love
As Brexit Day looms, Theresa May has until Valentine’s Day to wring concessions from the E.U.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 27, 2019
The Wisdom of Crowds
Why was our “Solving for 2019” audience less worried about recession but more cautious on equities?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 20, 2019
Known Knowns and Known Unknowns
If there were to be a recession this year, what might the cause be?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 13, 2019
December’s Lack of Good Cheer
The year-end sell-off may have been as much about poor market liquidity as poor fundamentals.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 06, 2019
Ten for 2019
The heads of our investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2019.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 16, 2018
An Alien Environment
To a visiting Martian, 2018 would suggest that risk is unrewarded and diversification is a waste of effort.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 09, 2018
Preparing a Soft Landing
The Fed is prudently downshifting gears to avoid slamming on the brakes in 2019.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 02, 2018
Rates of Change
Why a change of tack at the Fed and credit-market volatility may be positive for equities.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 25, 2018
Hybrid Vigor
Why a household name is issuing into a little-known market—and why investors should take note.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 18, 2018
A Stronger Hull, but Open Sails
If recession clouds don’t break on a 12-month horizon, there could be upside in the markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 11, 2018
Back Into Balance
Both the global economy and the U.S. Congress could be set for a new equilibrium in 2019.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 04, 2018
Scary Times
Halloween is over…but market fears could haunt the end-of-year holiday season.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 28, 2018
Revisiting International Equities
When a market fall appears indiscriminate, it may be inconsistent with fundamentals and offer an attractive long-term opportunity.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 21, 2018
Tough Love for Brazil
Would President Jair Bolsonaro be an economic reformer or an authoritarian?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 14, 2018
Tighter Rates, Tighter Correlations
It’s not time to batten down the hatches, but to get smarter about asset allocation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 07, 2018
Bondmageddon!
A reminder that rising yields, not recession, are most likely to trigger the next equity correction.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 30, 2018
Reframing the Cycle Question
However long the cycle has to go, it’s not too early to favor quality and tighten up issuer selection in credit.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 23, 2018
Tapering, Not Tightening
Why we don’t expect the ECB’s withdrawal of QE to throw euro bond markets off balance.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 16, 2018
The Year of Living Divergently
Unusually wide disparities in market returns have been this year’s theme, but how long can it last?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 09, 2018
Be Around Should EM Rebound
It could be all too easy for investors to miss a potential recovery in emerging markets debt.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 02, 2018
Getting a Handle on BBB Credit Risk
Our Global Investment Grade Fixed Income team explores the extent and nature of current risks in BBB credits.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 26, 2018
Improved Corporate Governance in Europe Could Drive Returns
A sharpened focus on shareholder value by European companies may serve as a tailwind for already-improving fundamentals.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 19, 2018
Thinking (Really) Long Term
This mid-year break, 10 years on from the financial crisis, is the perfect time to bring the big picture into focus.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 12, 2018
Einstein (and Leonardo) on the Beach
The success of unconventional thinkers reminds us that the world doesn’t always work conventionally.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 29, 2018
Crash Test Dummies
Dropping the threat of higher auto tariffs was an important step back from a global trade war.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 22, 2018
Principled Investing
How the Principles for Responsible Investment foster coordination and innovation in ESG.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 15, 2018
Positive Alpha
Tailwinds appear to be building behind a number of hedge fund styles.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 01, 2018
Finally, Some Yield
Fixed income opportunity opens up in Europe, emerging markets and the short end of the curve everywhere.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 24, 2018
A $200bn Game of Chicken
The U.S. and China rev up the trade rhetoric, but still have big incentives to swerve.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 17, 2018
Productivity, Inflation and the Path of Rates
A capex boost could raise productivity, keep a lid on inflation and further extend the current cycle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 10, 2018
Are You a Lightning Rod or a Seismograph?
The current sweet spot in high yield may be short-dated bonds rather than floating-rate loans.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 03, 2018
Europe’s Boot Gives the Market a Kick
The Italian mini-panic was a reminder of the euro zone’s still-unaddressed structural shortcomings.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 27, 2018
Elastic Band Theory
Fundamental market relationships maintain their shape despite a bias toward trend extrapolation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 20, 2018
Don’t Cry for Argentina
Coordinated action has undone some policy missteps and brought some calm to the crisis.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 13, 2018
In Defense of Boneheads
A well-governed business works like a partnership, and regards its capital providers as partners, too.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 06, 2018
Election Season in Latin America
Populists grab the headlines, but this year’s votes actually reveal the region’s economic and political diversity.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 29, 2018
Earnings vs. Rates—The Market Tug of War
Which will prove stronger: uncertainty about rates or confidence in earnings growth?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 22, 2018
Pent-Up Energy
Late-cycle support and attractive valuations could release the potential of commodity stocks.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 15, 2018
Value in a Volatile Market
Where to find value amid the volatility, and why that volatility is likely here to stay.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 08, 2018
Signal to Noise! Part Deux
Do not allow trade-talk noise to distract from the rates and inflation signals.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 01, 2018
Trading Blows
Markets try to weigh behind-the-scenes pragmatism against public saber-rattling on trade.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 25, 2018
Maintaining Balance
Where can asset allocators find ballast when both volatility and correlations are rising?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 18, 2018
Not Just for Yogurt
A strong corporate culture is good for employees, good for customers and good for business.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 11, 2018
Engagement and Judgment Matter
Why we think bottom-up active managers are better positioned to hold companies accountable.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 04, 2018
Eyes on the Pressure Gauges
As the economic machine speeds up, where on the dashboard do we look for pressure?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 25, 2018
Volatility Can Be a Wind in Your Sails
The VIX tornado didn’t change the fact that the investment industry is willing to pay for volatility control.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 18, 2018
When the Ice Melts, Friction Returns
Rising inflation and rates could make the return of market volatility structural, not temporary.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 11, 2018
VIX in a Fix
Equities stumble, but last week was not the big risk event of 2018.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 04, 2018
Muscle Memory
Is your portfolio in the right shape to withstand rising prices and rates?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 28, 2018
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
There are two kinds of people: Those who are prepared for elevated risks, and those who aren’t.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 21, 2018
Tax Cuts for Some!
While passive small-cap equity strategies have been a popular tax-cut play, not all small companies stand to benefit.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 14, 2018
Best Supporting Actors
The G10’s supporting actors may take the limelight from the euro and dollar in 2018.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 08, 2018
Ten for 2018
Momentum is strong now, but we see clouds on the horizon.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 01, 2018
A “Goldilocks” Environment with Risks of Getting “Warmer”
This year could turn out to be as exciting and eventful as 2017.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 17, 2017
Europe, Japan – A Flash in the Pan?
Guest writer Benjamin Segal describes how fundamental improvements and profit growth lend support to non-U.S. equities.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 10, 2017
It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Normal
Next year’s rising inflation and capex uptick could make this recovery feel “normal” at last.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 03, 2017
Big Data = Big Opportunity
This untapped resource could be the new frontier in investment research.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 26, 2017
The Asset Allocator’s Options
When nothing looks cheap, multi-asset investors need to write new pages into the asset allocator’s textbook.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 19, 2017
Taxing Questions for Bond Investors
From macro to micro, munis to high yield, the GOP’s tax reforms will impact bond markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 12, 2017
Late-Cycle Dilemmas
Markets stretch for return as the cycle matures and the Fed enters an uncertain new era.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 05, 2017
From Halloween to ‘FANGs-giving’
Last week’s scarily good macro and earnings data revealed solid foundations for reflation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 29, 2017
Fixing the Foundations
As rainclouds part to reveal synchronized global growth, policymakers ponder structural challenges.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 22, 2017
China Charts Its Future
Over 2,000 lawmakers gather to settle the leaders and policies of the world’s second-biggest economy.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 15, 2017
The Power of Going Private
Why private markets may be worth considering in today’s environment.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 08, 2017
Hedging Upward
The rising cost of currency hedges may require a re-think for fixed income portfolios.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 01, 2017
Capitol Punishment
The 2018 midterm elections may concentrate minds in Washington.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 24, 2017
Side FX
Are credit investors comparing “like with like” when they compare U.S. and European yields?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 17, 2017
Stock Picking Is Making a Comeback
A long-awaited reminder of the appeal of active management.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 10, 2017
In the Eye of the Storm
Take care not to mistake calm markets for fair weather.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 03, 2017
Jackson Ho-Hum?
The symposium produced few fireworks, but indicated what is top-of-mind for central bank policymakers.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 27, 2017
Avert Your Eyes!
Never mind the eclipse, don’t look at Washington, DC.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 20, 2017
Let’s Give Credit to ESG
ESG is relevant to bonds as well as equities, but in different ways.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 13, 2017
Lessons from the Past
What 1987, 1997 and 2007 teach us about getting to 2027, 2037 and 2047.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 06, 2017
Venezuela in Flames
A Latin American country endures a crisis straight out of the 1980s.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 30, 2017
The Central Banks’ ‘Dunkirk’
We are past the end of the beginning of QE, but still at the beginning of the end.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 23, 2017
‘War and Peace’ on the Beach
Summer reflections on complacency, humility and diversification.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 16, 2017
Watering Down the Punch
The punch bowl is likely here to stay, but expect the Fed to water down what’s in it.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 09, 2017
These Are Not Normal Markets
Central banks and massive passives create a potential feast for hedge funds.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 02, 2017
“Somewhat Rich”!
Equities have had a tremendous run—but for good reasons.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 25, 2017
Goldilocks and the Three Bears (or Bulls)
There is opportunity and risk, despite the quiet in markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 18, 2017
U.S. ‘Dolor’
Did the dollar put in a long-term top last December?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 11, 2017
OPEC and U.S. Shale: Collision Course?
In the wake of OPEC’s extension of production cuts, we consider what may come next.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 04, 2017
Calm for Now
Recent low volatility reflects fundamentals, but don’t expect it to remain in place forever.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 28, 2017
Disruption Becomes the Norm
Technology fuels an accelerating creative destruction process.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 21, 2017
Emerging Markets Debt: Is There Still Gas in the Tank?
Reforms, growth trends and favorable yields are among the current drivers of the asset class.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 07, 2017
Building the Case for Europe
Why the euro area looks attractive right now.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 30, 2017
Taxing Concerns
Can Donald Trump persuade Congress to pass his new tax proposals?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 23, 2017
Steady, As She Goes
In our view, the U.S. is still at mid-cycle in terms of economic growth.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 16, 2017
Earth Day and Portfolios
Interest in Earth Day parallels evolution in environmentalism—and ESG integration into investments.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 09, 2017
Trading Places
International equity markets are looking increasingly attractive.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 02, 2017
Small is Beautiful
U.S. smaller companies have endured seven lean years, but are they poised for a comeback?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 26, 2017
Emerging Markets, Stealth Leader
While U.S. and European politics have dominated attention, emerging markets have quietly outperformed.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 19, 2017
Pitch Perfect – Yellen Hits a High Note
Markets were encouraged by the Fed’s stronger, more confident approach last week.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 12, 2017
Back to Basics
In a world dominated by politics, it’s important that investors continue to focus on the basics.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 05, 2017
And the Winner Is…
Will Europe’s elections become a high-water mark in the growth of populism?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 26, 2017
Yellen Takes the Reins
The Fed has a wide open backstretch to get in front of the market.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 19, 2017
Separating Politics from Fundamentals
U.S. politics are grabbing all the headlines, but corporate America keeps chugging along.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 12, 2017
Taxes, Trade and Other Tribulations
Will tax and trade issues have an impact on non-investment grade credit?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 05, 2017
Tug of War
There’s a global tug of war going on between an upswing in growth and ongoing tightening.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 29, 2017
Hopes and Fears
Which will triumph in 2017?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 22, 2017
Signal-to-Noise Ratio
Finding—and sticking to—the facts will be especially crucial for investors in the months ahead.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 15, 2017
Will Politics Overshadow Fundamentals Again?
2017: Risks and opportunities from a currency market perspective.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 04, 2016
Taking Stock of the U.S.
Stronger GDP growth the key to sustaining U.S. equity momentum.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 09, 2016
Another Blow to the Status Quo
After one of the most bitter and divisive US Presidential election campaigns in living memory, the outcome is arguably the one that markets were dreading.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 30, 2016
Populist Fears, Globalist Tears
Don’t cry over the new politics: price it in, and address its real concerns.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 25, 2016
Japan Wheels Out Its Helicopters
The BoJ sends an invitation to government, a challenge to markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 14, 2016
Lost in Translation
Markets should not be so disappointed at Japan’s policy measures.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 17, 2016
The World Turned Upside Down
Governments may be getting ready to loosen up.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 10, 2016
Will Central Banks Look to New Tools?
Starting in Japan, monetary policy may need to go to the next level.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 03, 2016
Brexit… Pursued by a Bear?
Early “Brexit” impact was localized, but tail risk persists
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 24, 2016
Britain Votes to Leave the EU
Market turmoil could create opportunity.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 19, 2016
Are Bond Yields Forecasting Equity Weakness?
Beware distortion in yield curves and discount rates.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 15, 2016
The Europe Behind the Headlines
Factors line up behind corporate Europe.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 08, 2016
Politics May ‘Trump’ Fundamentals This Year
Unpredictable politics could weigh on market sentiment.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 17, 2016
The Market Pendulum
Can 2016 earnings justify today’s valuations?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 10, 2016
Oil, the Dollar, Rates: Three Stars Align
Lower dollar, higher oil could improve prospects for 2016 earnings.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 03, 2016
Markets to Investors: It’s ‘Time In,’ Not ‘Timing’
The first quarter gave us a great lesson in long-term investing