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CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 25, 2022
A High-Yielding Haven
As an ever-more-aggressive rate-hiking cycle rocks the financial markets, might corporate credit offer a space that is both remunerative and relatively calm?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 18, 2022
Hold the Inflation Victory Lap
Inflation still appears to be the biggest source of potential volatility in the market, and we think that’s because it will remain the dominant economic story for the foreseeable future.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 11, 2022
The Climate Has Changed for Infrastructure
Following a year of starkly revealed vulnerabilities in water, energy and supply-chain assets, some game-changing legislation suggests that governments are finally getting serious about infrastructure investment.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 04, 2022
The Uncertainty May Be Worse Than the Slowdown
We do think the onset of recession is a time to tread carefully, but it could also be a time of opportunity for equity investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 28, 2022
Euro Parity: Threshold or Boundary?
The euro is subject to enormous economic forces that could equally be very positive for the currency or the cause of an even greater fall.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 21, 2022
The Nominal and the Real
What might be the playbook for a potential recession in which nominal GDP grows by 8%—and are investors only just recognizing that they need one?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 14, 2022
China: Suspended Animation
The run-up to China’s leadership meetings this fall is delaying substantial policy changes, in our view creating opportunities in advance of potential economic improvement next year.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 07, 2022
Recession Semantics
Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 31, 2022
Ukraine and the Path to Deglobalization
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading offers a reminder of Ukraine’s millennia-old importance for global trade, helping us understand why today’s conflict could be yet another lasting blow against globalization.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 24, 2022
Inflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 17, 2022
Earnings at a Crossroads
The guidance in this season’s earnings reports could start to tell us how far earnings are likely to decline and how much is already priced in.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 10, 2022
Reasons for Optimism
Caution may be warranted during the uncertainty of the next quarter—but after markets have sold off so much, does it really make sense to be more pessimistic now than at the start of this year?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 03, 2022
The ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 26, 2022
After the Revaluation, the Slowdown
Our Asset Allocation Committee believes that, whether we enter a recession or not, the expected slowdown and ongoing market volatility could feel like one for investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 19, 2022
The Space Economy Achieves Lift-Off
Space-based industry is much more down-to-earth than you might think—and every day it touches more and more of our lives.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 12, 2022
Descending From Extremes Is a Rocky Process
To understand the current volatility, it helps to get reacquainted with just how out of whack things were coming into 2022—in terms of both magnitude and timing.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 05, 2022
The Two-Way Market Persists
The search for value is on, particularly in short to medium duration.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 29, 2022
Two Perspectives on the Sell-Off
We see signs that many investors are changing the way they think about the current sell-off—and that might challenge the way you think about the balance of risk.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 22, 2022
Staying On Theme
When inflation, interest rates and global economic uncertainty are rising, cash today can seem more urgent than exposure to the markets of tomorrow—but could that mean investors risk missing out on the potential of thematic strategies?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 15, 2022
Are We There Yet?
Regardless of whether we get a hard or soft landing, we likely face a steep approach to the runway in trying to “land this plane.” The question is, how well consumers and companies absorb the slowdown, and whether sentiment is already bearish enough to create long-term value.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 08, 2022
Inflation-Fighting Properties
Real estate has tended to get a prominent page in inflation playbooks—but do some parts of the market get a particularly strong tailwind from rising prices?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 01, 2022
Japan Is Back on the Risk Radar
Japan and the extreme moves in its currency are among the most important dynamics in capital markets right now—here’s why we think they should loom much larger in investors’ minds.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 24, 2022
The Rising Costs of a Drawn-Out War
Financial markets may not ebb and flow with major developments on the battlefield anymore, but we believe they do still need to come to terms with the war’s lasting inflationary impact.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 17, 2022
Cautious, Not Bearish
Investors may want to position for persistent volatility as growth begins to slow, but we still believe earnings growth supports the case for equities.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 10, 2022
Has Fear of the Fed Peaked?
As investors continue to digest the likely path of this tightening cycle, we think the dramatic moves of recent weeks are set to ease, laying a good foundation for credit investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 03, 2022
Virtual Worlds, Real Opportunities
Could the metaverse be a revolution in every aspect of our lives, ridiculous hype that will lead nowhere, or the natural progression of a world we’ve been living in for decades?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 27, 2022
From Buying the Dips to Fading the Rallies
Equity markets are higher than they were on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine, but here’s why we think there is more volatility, and potentially more downside to come.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 20, 2022
War, Inflation, and Markets
Investors appear to be refocusing on pre-war concerns about economic fundamentals—but finding that this horrific conflict has exacerbated them.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 13, 2022
Value Can Potentially Outperform Even if Growth Slows
We believe value is likely to outperform growth over the coming years—and threats to economic growth from inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks do not change our view.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 06, 2022
Uninvestable Russia
We survey the impact on worldwide fixed income markets of the devastation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, and send our thoughts to those in the heart of the conflict.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 27, 2022
Conflict and Commodities
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds an unwelcome geopolitical layer to the inflation challenge, and yet another reason to reintroduce commodities to the asset allocation mix.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 20, 2022
The Supply-Led Inflation Challenge
The Fed could end up playing checkers while the economy is playing chess—with potentially worldwide consequences.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 13, 2022
How Deep Is EUR Love?
Thursday’s 7.5% U.S. inflation print reintroduced some volatility, but we still think the euro is building a base for a long-term relationship with its admirers.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 06, 2022
Are Markets Signaling a Slowdown?
We see no sign of impending recession in calm credit markets, and in our view the flattening Treasury curve likely has more to do with the market’s failure to recognize growing structural inflationary forces.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 30, 2022
China Is Still an Asian Tiger
We think the Lunar New Year could see a growth comeback for China.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 23, 2022
Solving for a Year of Inflections
The Solving for 2022 delegates voted on what they think will be this year’s best-performing investment category—and here’s why we think they are right.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 16, 2022
2022: A Year of Major Inflection Points
These five big transitions are likely to make 2022 a choppy and challenging year for equity investors—and the end of the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t even make the cut.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 09, 2022
New Year, New Monetary Policy
As markets adjust for an environment of tighter monetary conditions, we preview the key themes of our forthcoming Fixed Income Investment Outlook.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 02, 2022
Outlook 2022
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2022.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 19, 2021
The Fight Against Inflation Has Begun
We think that inflation, central bank policy and real rates will define the battlefield for markets in 2022—but will the most volatile skirmishes come sooner or later in the year?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 12, 2021
Omicron vs. the Fed
The volatility of the past two weeks may have had less to do with the virus and more to do with underlying cyclical uncertainties about growth, inflation and Fed policy.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 05, 2021
Real Rates Are the Key to This Cycle
Most of the consensus trades for 2021 failed in the second half of the year, and we think understanding why could be critical to unlocking the rest of this unique cycle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 28, 2021
Tremors in Credit and Currency Markets
November’s modest uptick in volatility, driven by a recalibration of the market’s macroeconomic expectations, could be a sign of things to come.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 21, 2021
Simple Equity Themes for Complex Times
Here’s why we think value and income can offer equity investors both a buffer against uncertainty and an attractive opportunity in an ongoing reflationary expansion.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 14, 2021
Inflation Could Unbalance Policy and Portfolios
As inflation pressures build and investors question central bank policies, we think it’s increasingly important to diversify against market volatility and rising prices.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 07, 2021
Central Banks Emerge From Hibernation
Rates volatility reflects a change in the inflation narrative, and could accelerate central bank policy adjustments.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 31, 2021
COP26: The Heat Is On
Why COP26 is arguably the most critical global summit in a generation—for investors, as well as for the climate.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 24, 2021
Sustainability in Emerging Markets Debt
Ignoring sustainability in emerging markets debt is, for want of a better term, no longer sustainable.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 17, 2021
The Worst Seems to Be Over…Now It Gets Complicated
Investors have shifted focus from the immediate COVID-19 threat to the prospect of a cyclical slowdown and secular stagflation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 10, 2021
Caution Today, Opportunity Tomorrow
We think a more cautious stance represents a prudent approach to an already volatile inflection point between early-cycle recovery and mid-cycle expansion.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 03, 2021
The Inflation Generation
Temporary price spikes over the past 20 or 30 years have all passed without sparking a general rise in inflation, but here are four reasons why we think this time is different.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 26, 2021
China’s New Strategy in Its Pan-Asian Context
Why we believe China’s strategic reorientation changes the case for investment rather than removing it, and also highlights the growing diversity of opportunity in the rest of Asia.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 19, 2021
This Is Not a 60/40 Environment
The shift to a mid-cycle expansion beset with unusually high levels of uncertainty could bring a new test for asset allocators.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 12, 2021
October Surprise?
It has been 11 months since the last 5% correction in equity markets, and the coming weeks present a number of significant potential risks.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 05, 2021
ECB Policy and Bunds Are Set to Move
Ahead of the key European Central Bank policy meeting on September 9, we offer our views on what will likely change, what may not, and what it could mean for the Bund yield.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 29, 2021
How Big Data Casts New Light on Reopening Stocks
Our recent work on the COVID-19 Delta variant not only reminds us that data science can give us insights into the pandemic, but also about the ways alternative data need to be marshaled to provide actionable information for our investment views.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 22, 2021
China Policy Moves Strengthen the Case for the Local Market
China’s regulatory reforms may be disruptive in the short term, but we see long-term positives.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 15, 2021
Don’t Fear the Taper
A potential reduction in the Fed’s purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities could open up opportunities for investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 08, 2021
On the Joy of Being Wrong
Think Again, by Adam Grant, is Erik Knutzen’s recommendation for this year’s summer vacation reading.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 01, 2021
Delta Blues
The Delta variant of the coronavirus is rattling markets and poses real risks, but we should not be distracted from the successful impact of vaccinations.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 25, 2021
The Preferred Option
How tailored solutions deploying preferred stock can help private equity-owned companies solve a pressing challenge in their capital structures—and earn very attractive risk-adjusted returns in the process.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 18, 2021
Reconciling the Data and the Markets
Inflation is up, Treasury yields are down, and the recovery trade is on the ropes—we believe it’s all more evidence of a fiercely debating, two-way market.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 11, 2021
Technical Storm Drives Treasury Yields Lower
Light summer trading and overstretched short-duration positioning have led to a slump in rates—but is there anything more fundamental in the move?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 04, 2021
Earnings Still Matter
Despite stretched equity market valuations, a blockbuster second-quarter earnings season could help sustain market momentum.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 27, 2021
Two-Way Markets Are Back
After nearly a year going up in a straight line, questions about inflation, the economic cycle and central bank messaging have brought more push and pull back into markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 20, 2021
Bond Yields Under a More Hawkish Fed
A more hawkish Fed may not lift Treasury or investment grade credit yields, and that raises important questions for fixed income investors and asset allocators.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 13, 2021
A Show of Strength by Shareholders
As the 2021 proxy voting season winds to a close across the world, it looks set to mark a watershed moment for shareholder engagement.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 06, 2021
When the Chips Are Down
The global semiconductor shortage is often characterized as a short-term supply-and-demand imbalance, but we think it reveals a vast and secular need for investment capital.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 30, 2021
Roaring Twenties, or Back to the Late Teens?
This is a truly singular global recession and recovery, and it makes portfolio diversification both vital and challenging.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 23, 2021
Are Central Banks Risking Their Independence?
Monetary policy institutions may be straining their credibility, which increases the likelihood of political encroachment and threatens our hard-earned victory over volatile consumer prices.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 16, 2021
Jobs, Inflation and Market Volatility
This year’s inflation surprises are likely to create volatility in markets, but here’s why we think they are transitory and unlikely to derail the longer-term recovery.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 09, 2021
REITs, Inflation and Rates
History suggests that a strong case can be made for a dedicated REITs allocation if you think inflation and interest rates are going up.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 02, 2021
Pausing for Breath on ‘Peak Growth’
Rates of change in economic data may be hitting their peaks, but that need not preclude more long-term upside for risky assets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 25, 2021
A Crack in China’s Debt Foundations
Bonds issued by China’s biggest distressed debt asset manager just lost 40% of their value—how concerned should we be?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 18, 2021
NB Votes: Increasing the Impact of our Proxies
For the new proxy season, we have expanded our advance voting disclosure initiative across issues and geographies.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 11, 2021
What Is the Toll on This Road?
The U.S. is crying out for infrastructure upgrades, but an overshoot on taxes could put its companies at a disadvantage.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 04, 2021
Japan Could Win a Medal in the Recovery Race
A strong manufacturing base and changing attitudes toward shareholder value could mean the world’s capital heads to Japan, even if the world’s sports fans cannot.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 28, 2021
Rising Stars and the Treasuries Sell-Off
Higher yields have so far left the credit market largely unscathed, but they have changed the balance of opportunity.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 21, 2021
Is The Fed’s Word Its Bond?
The central bank is standing by its new policy commitment, and we believe that is supportive of equity markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 14, 2021
Remember Value Investing?
After being ignored for 13 years, value sectors such as financials, materials, energy and industrials are back—and we believe economic acceleration and rising rates set the stage for a multiyear recovery.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 07, 2021
Recoveries Are Rarely Straight Lines
We believe more volatility is likely, and think investors should diversify against it but also use it to lean into the new cycle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 28, 2021
Early-Cycle Conditions Still Support Credit
Why the run-up in rates has troubled equity markets more than credit, and why we think that is poised to continue.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 21, 2021
How Much Is Too Much?
There is growing concern that the coming stimulus might be more than the economy needs.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 14, 2021
Doves Ascending
Rethinking portfolios now that ex-central bankers Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi have their hands on the purse strings.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 07, 2021
Toward a Steeper U.S. Yield Curve
A potentially substantial growth and inflation recovery from the second half of this year could put pressure under long-dated yields, and eventually the Fed.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 31, 2021
What Happens When the Game Stops?
Valuations are stretched, but speculative option trading may not necessarily be a sign of widespread, unsustainable froth.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 24, 2021
Don’t Mistake Growth for Quality
As investors adjust for a potential style rotation, we urge them not to abandon their portfolios’ “quality compounders” and “transition winners.”
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 17, 2021
Rates Markets Are Normalizing
It is far too early for taper talk, in our view, but the bias of risk is still toward higher rates to come.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 10, 2021
Few Things Are Riskier Than Consensus
Investors should be concerned that market participants have begun 2021 with their views and positioning arguably more closely aligned than they have been for years.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 03, 2021
Outlook 2021
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2021.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 20, 2020
A Year of Stark Contrasts
Navigating markets in this year of vulnerable resilience and defensive exuberance has required some humility.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 13, 2020
Building Blocks for Successful Real Estate Investing
Why we think the coronavirus crisis has demonstrated the benefits of real estate company investing.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 06, 2020
Generating Interest
Must investors settle for sub-zero real returns on their cash allocations?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 29, 2020
A Heartfelt Thanksgiving
We emerge from the holiday hopeful for a Season of Goodwill in markets, but ready for any last surprises that 2020 might have in store.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 22, 2020
Markets on a Tightrope
Violent equity market rotations present a strong case for balance in portfolios, but an unusually complex knot of factors makes it challenging to achieve.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 15, 2020
Stay Flexible in Credit
We still think credit is attractive for 2021, but the flexibility and selectivity that helped investors this year will be even more important—think 2020, with the volume turned up.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 08, 2020
Corporate Hybrids Come of Age
We believe the nearly €200 billion corporate hybrid market just got its first true test—and passed with flying colors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 04, 2020
Special Edition: The U.S. Votes: Our First Response
The U.S. has voted in the midst of arguably the most challenging environment for generations. Here’s our first take on the likely result and what it could mean for investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 01, 2020
The Priority Pyramid
Tuesday's election matters—but it is the top of a pyramid whose base is, in our view, supportive of fixed income and credit whatever the outcome.