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CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 19, 2021
This Is Not a 60/40 Environment
The shift to a mid-cycle expansion beset with unusually high levels of uncertainty could bring a new test for asset allocators.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 12, 2021
October Surprise?
It has been 11 months since the last 5% correction in equity markets, and the coming weeks present a number of significant potential risks.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 05, 2021
ECB Policy and Bunds Are Set to Move
Ahead of the key European Central Bank policy meeting on September 9, we offer our views on what will likely change, what may not, and what it could mean for the Bund yield.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 29, 2021
How Big Data Casts New Light on Reopening Stocks
Our recent work on the COVID-19 Delta variant not only reminds us that data science can give us insights into the pandemic, but also about the ways alternative data need to be marshaled to provide actionable information for our investment views.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 22, 2021
China Policy Moves Strengthen the Case for the Local Market
China’s regulatory reforms may be disruptive in the short term, but we see long-term positives.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 15, 2021
Don’t Fear the Taper
A potential reduction in the Fed’s purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities could open up opportunities for investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 08, 2021
On the Joy of Being Wrong
Think Again, by Adam Grant, is Erik Knutzen’s recommendation for this year’s summer vacation reading.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 01, 2021
Delta Blues
The Delta variant of the coronavirus is rattling markets and poses real risks, but we should not be distracted from the successful impact of vaccinations.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 25, 2021
The Preferred Option
How tailored solutions deploying preferred stock can help private equity-owned companies solve a pressing challenge in their capital structures—and earn very attractive risk-adjusted returns in the process.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 18, 2021
Reconciling the Data and the Markets
Inflation is up, Treasury yields are down, and the recovery trade is on the ropes—we believe it’s all more evidence of a fiercely debating, two-way market.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 11, 2021
Technical Storm Drives Treasury Yields Lower
Light summer trading and overstretched short-duration positioning have led to a slump in rates—but is there anything more fundamental in the move?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 04, 2021
Earnings Still Matter
Despite stretched equity market valuations, a blockbuster second-quarter earnings season could help sustain market momentum.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 27, 2021
Two-Way Markets Are Back
After nearly a year going up in a straight line, questions about inflation, the economic cycle and central bank messaging have brought more push and pull back into markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 20, 2021
Bond Yields Under a More Hawkish Fed
A more hawkish Fed may not lift Treasury or investment grade credit yields, and that raises important questions for fixed income investors and asset allocators.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 13, 2021
A Show of Strength by Shareholders
As the 2021 proxy voting season winds to a close across the world, it looks set to mark a watershed moment for shareholder engagement.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 06, 2021
When the Chips Are Down
The global semiconductor shortage is often characterized as a short-term supply-and-demand imbalance, but we think it reveals a vast and secular need for investment capital.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 30, 2021
Roaring Twenties, or Back to the Late Teens?
This is a truly singular global recession and recovery, and it makes portfolio diversification both vital and challenging.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 23, 2021
Are Central Banks Risking Their Independence?
Monetary policy institutions may be straining their credibility, which increases the likelihood of political encroachment and threatens our hard-earned victory over volatile consumer prices.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 16, 2021
Jobs, Inflation and Market Volatility
This year’s inflation surprises are likely to create volatility in markets, but here’s why we think they are transitory and unlikely to derail the longer-term recovery.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 09, 2021
REITs, Inflation and Rates
History suggests that a strong case can be made for a dedicated REITs allocation if you think inflation and interest rates are going up.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 02, 2021
Pausing for Breath on ‘Peak Growth’
Rates of change in economic data may be hitting their peaks, but that need not preclude more long-term upside for risky assets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 25, 2021
A Crack in China’s Debt Foundations
Bonds issued by China’s biggest distressed debt asset manager just lost 40% of their value—how concerned should we be?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 18, 2021
NB Votes: Increasing the Impact of our Proxies
For the new proxy season, we have expanded our advance voting disclosure initiative across issues and geographies.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 11, 2021
What Is the Toll on This Road?
The U.S. is crying out for infrastructure upgrades, but an overshoot on taxes could put its companies at a disadvantage.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 04, 2021
Japan Could Win a Medal in the Recovery Race
A strong manufacturing base and changing attitudes toward shareholder value could mean the world’s capital heads to Japan, even if the world’s sports fans cannot.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 28, 2021
Rising Stars and the Treasuries Sell-Off
Higher yields have so far left the credit market largely unscathed, but they have changed the balance of opportunity.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 21, 2021
Is The Fed’s Word Its Bond?
The central bank is standing by its new policy commitment, and we believe that is supportive of equity markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 14, 2021
Remember Value Investing?
After being ignored for 13 years, value sectors such as financials, materials, energy and industrials are back—and we believe economic acceleration and rising rates set the stage for a multiyear recovery.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 07, 2021
Recoveries Are Rarely Straight Lines
We believe more volatility is likely, and think investors should diversify against it but also use it to lean into the new cycle.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 28, 2021
Early-Cycle Conditions Still Support Credit
Why the run-up in rates has troubled equity markets more than credit, and why we think that is poised to continue.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 21, 2021
How Much Is Too Much?
There is growing concern that the coming stimulus might be more than the economy needs.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 14, 2021
Doves Ascending
Rethinking portfolios now that ex-central bankers Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi have their hands on the purse strings.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 07, 2021
Toward a Steeper U.S. Yield Curve
A potentially substantial growth and inflation recovery from the second half of this year could put pressure under long-dated yields, and eventually the Fed.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 31, 2021
What Happens When the Game Stops?
Valuations are stretched, but speculative option trading may not necessarily be a sign of widespread, unsustainable froth.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 24, 2021
Don’t Mistake Growth for Quality
As investors adjust for a potential style rotation, we urge them not to abandon their portfolios’ “quality compounders” and “transition winners.”
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 17, 2021
Rates Markets Are Normalizing
It is far too early for taper talk, in our view, but the bias of risk is still toward higher rates to come.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 10, 2021
Few Things Are Riskier Than Consensus
Investors should be concerned that market participants have begun 2021 with their views and positioning arguably more closely aligned than they have been for years.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 03, 2021
Outlook 2021
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2021.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 20, 2020
A Year of Stark Contrasts
Navigating markets in this year of vulnerable resilience and defensive exuberance has required some humility.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 13, 2020
Building Blocks for Successful Real Estate Investing
Why we think the coronavirus crisis has demonstrated the benefits of real estate company investing.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 06, 2020
Generating Interest
Must investors settle for sub-zero real returns on their cash allocations?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 29, 2020
A Heartfelt Thanksgiving
We emerge from the holiday hopeful for a Season of Goodwill in markets, but ready for any last surprises that 2020 might have in store.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 22, 2020
Markets on a Tightrope
Violent equity market rotations present a strong case for balance in portfolios, but an unusually complex knot of factors makes it challenging to achieve.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 15, 2020
Stay Flexible in Credit
We still think credit is attractive for 2021, but the flexibility and selectivity that helped investors this year will be even more important—think 2020, with the volume turned up.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 08, 2020
Corporate Hybrids Come of Age
We believe the nearly €200 billion corporate hybrid market just got its first true test—and passed with flying colors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 04, 2020
Special Edition: The U.S. Votes: Our First Response
The U.S. has voted in the midst of arguably the most challenging environment for generations. Here’s our first take on the likely result and what it could mean for investors.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 01, 2020
The Priority Pyramid
Tuesday's election matters—but it is the top of a pyramid whose base is, in our view, supportive of fixed income and credit whatever the outcome.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 25, 2020
Moving the Needle
The U.S. election will be big news in November, but news on coronavirus vaccines will probably “move the needle” more for markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 18, 2020
Degrees of Risk
Recognition as a PRI Leader on climate reporting will help us raise awareness of the importance of “Climate Value-at-Risk.”
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 11, 2020
Comfort and Distress
The extreme bifurcation between winners and losers in the post-pandemic world could set up two very different potential value opportunities in high yield.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 04, 2020
Where Was the Debate?
Republican and Democratic policy differences could be meaningful for investors, but we learned little from last Tuesday’s shouting match.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 27, 2020
On the Road to Secular Stagnation
Sentiment around monetary policy, fiscal policy and a host of other factors can swing markets, but can anything return us to sustained growth and inflation?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 20, 2020
Suganomics
Japan’s new prime minister could boost fiscal and growth strategies to secure his position ahead of the next general election, with a focus on digitalization and deregulation.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 13, 2020
Inflated Expectations
We think the Fed may need to reinforce its policy revolution with additional stimulus announcements this week.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
September 06, 2020
Heading for a Fall?
The fall season often trips up the markets, and 2020 promises more than its fair share of hazards.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 30, 2020
The Fed Keeps Adapting
A shift in policy highlights central bank commitment as the economy seeks to regain its footing.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 23, 2020
Quarantined From Market Risk?
We look at whether “uncorrelated strategies” lived up to their label through the COVID-19 crisis.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 16, 2020
Killer BBBs, Where Is Thy Sting?
While some credit investors have been running scared, we’ve chosen to stick around and harvest the honey.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 09, 2020
The Circus Is Coming to Town
Quiet markets in the run-up to the U.S. election belie the high political stakes.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
August 02, 2020
Chernobyl and My COVID-19 Summer
The acclaimed drama reminds us of the possibility of the highly improbable, and the importance of clear assessment of difficult facts in a crisis.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 26, 2020
Climbing the Great Wall of China
Why is China’s vast bond market so underappreciated by foreign investors, and is it worth getting to know it better?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 19, 2020
Head Above the Waves
A resurgence of COVID-19 cases is a reminder that this crisis is likely far from over.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 12, 2020
Engaging Japan’s Hidden Gems
How a more personal investment approach could help uncover Japan’s small- and mid-cap “hidden gems.”
CIO Weekly Perspectives
July 05, 2020
Building the Liquidity Bridge
Unprecedented liquidity from both central banks and the capital markets is helping non-investment grade borrowers survive the COVID-19 crisis, and substantially lowering estimated default rates.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 28, 2020
A Strong Recovery Is Not Necessarily a Full One
A run of positive economic data surprises, while welcome, should not distract us from the long struggle ahead.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 21, 2020
The Growing Risk in ‘Risk-Free’ Assets
With the short end of yield curves pinned at zero and the long end depressed, government bonds may not be the portfolio hedges they used to be.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 14, 2020
5G Dis-Connectivity
Geopolitical and trade tensions may fragment the 5G supply chain, but while that could make the theme more complex to navigate, it is unlikely to diminish its importance.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
June 07, 2020
The Economy Is Society
As investors and fiduciaries, we have a responsibility to acknowledge the unsustainability of gross inequality.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 31, 2020
A Moment of Solidarity for Europe
There is still much work to do, but the Franco-German-led EU Recovery Fund is potentially a very big deal for Europe.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 24, 2020
Not Out of the Woods
The discipline of scenario planning helps us focus on what has been achieved, rather than what we hope will be achieved.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 17, 2020
The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
COVID-19 has damaged a lot of things, including the link between the S&P 500 and the U.S. economy.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 10, 2020
Empty Malls and Conference Calls
The COVID-19 crisis has been tough on REITs in general—but some sectors have been resilient, and may offer a glimpse into the future of the asset class.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
May 03, 2020
Canary in the Coal Mine
The credit market has lagged while equities have rallied—is it warning investors not to get carried away?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 26, 2020
Futures Shock
Amid unprecedented market dislocations and uncertainty, preparing playbooks for a range of outcomes can help us stay nimble and adaptive.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 19, 2020
A Playbook for the Recovery
We’ve been refining our outlook for the COVID-19 crisis and recovery—and it emphasizes patience and caution about the equity market rally.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 12, 2020
Protective and Proactive
Liquid alternatives and private market investors are proving their worth during the current turmoil.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
April 05, 2020
A Tale of Two Markets
March was the worst of times for financial markets, and yet the best of times for primary issuance of investment grade credit.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 29, 2020
Safety First
After a big sell-off, many fear missing the rebound—but we expect more volatility and think the time for opportunism will come later.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 22, 2020
Shock and Awe
Does this week’s multitrillion-dollar shot in the arm vaccinate the economy against the worst impact of COVID-19?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 15, 2020
High Drama in High Yield
Coronavirus and the OPEC price war combine for a one-two punch to high yield markets.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 08, 2020
Prepare for the Long Haul
Why the major uncertainties twisting markets out of shape today are likely to persist for months.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
March 01, 2020
Coronavirus: A Moving Target
If you haven’t reduced risk, it’s probably not too late to do so; if you are already conservatively positioned, it may be too early to buy the dips.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 23, 2020
Will Kraft Heinz Spoil the Credit Markets?
We see the food giant’s recent downgrade as idiosyncratic and at odds with generally stable financial conditions.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 16, 2020
Smarter Strategies, Smartly Implemented
Risk management can be more informed when it draws on the full range of quantitative, fundamental and data-science insights.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 09, 2020
Coronavirus: The View From China
Aggressive public health, monetary and fiscal interventions appear to be taking effect.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
February 02, 2020
The Coronavirus and Portfolio Risk
We hope for rapid containment of the coronavirus outbreak, but believe it is too early to make big investment decisions.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 26, 2020
Credit 2020: Bull or Bear?
At our Solving for 2020 conference in London, we debated the outlook for credit in the simplest possible terms.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 19, 2020
Brand Ambassadors
How investors can transform brand loyalties into brand royalties.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 12, 2020
Do Middle East Geopolitics Matter?
Factors closer to global economic fundamentals should win out in 2020, and on balance we are prepared to maintain risk in our views.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
January 05, 2020
Outlook 2020
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2020.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 15, 2019
Deflated Expectations
Economic recovery in general, and inflation-linked bonds in particular, have become undervalued in Europe.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 08, 2019
Holiday Spending
Shoppers are out in force, but are businesses and governments catching the holiday spending spirit, too?
CIO Weekly Perspectives
December 01, 2019
Lat-Am Spring?
The succession of political upheavals in South America resist easy categorization.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 24, 2019
Social Tensions
Social media makes political risk turn up in unexpected places, with more sudden impact—and portfolios may be more exposed than we realize.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 17, 2019
The Political Economy
As confidence in the economic data grows, wariness about political uncertainty and “fiscal dysfunction” is as elevated as it has been in years.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 10, 2019
Catch-Up Potential for EM FX
As growth bottoms out and tail risks ease, attractive valuations support the case for emerging markets currencies.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
November 03, 2019
Buying Time
Consumers and central banks need help from businesses and governments to sustain the economy.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 27, 2019
Mercury Too High, Rates Too Low
At the World Bank and IMF annual meetings, two concerns dominated: climate change and negative interest rates.
CIO Weekly Perspectives
October 20, 2019
Time to Get Off the Sidelines?
Things may be bottoming out.