Insights
CIO Weekly Perspectives
Is the Consumer Cracking?
News from the consumer sector reveals intriguing trends, as well as the importance of credit and security selection in today’s complex market environment.CIO Weekly Perspectives
A Tale of Two Indices
How an “optical illusion” might be making the S&P 500 look more expensive, and better-performing, than it really is.CIO Weekly Perspectives
What ‘Data-Dependent’ Feels Like
As central banks become more “data-dependent,” will monetary policy become less predictable and markets potentially more volatile?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Trip Hazards
The U.S. debt ceiling is just one of a long list of obstacles waiting to trip up markets, and there is very little opportunity cost for remaining cautious.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Proxy Voting: Engagement Matters
As we kick off our latest NB Votes campaign, we look at what detailed bottom-up knowledge brings to the process, and what can happen when it’s absent.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Are Agency Mortgages a Home Run?
Why we think recent banking-sector stress has made already attractive U.S. mortgage securities even more keenly valued.CIO Weekly Perspectives
A New ‘Impossible Trilemma’?
Can we lower government debt, sustain positive real rates and finance the transition to a low-carbon economy?CIO Weekly Perspectives
As Credit Goes, So Goes the Economy
Credit is the lifeblood of the economy, and the credit system just had a heart murmur.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Turning, Not Re-Turning
It makes sense to prepare for the turning point in this cycle—but not by returning to the winners from the last cycle.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The More Things Change, Part II
Banking stresses may have tightened conditions enough for policymakers to pause their hiking cycles indefinitely.CIO Weekly Perspectives
At the Crossroads, Seeking Direction
Faced with historically inverted yield curves, unbalanced equity markets and economic conditions unseen for 40 years, investors are agonizing over their next steps.CIO Weekly Perspectives
ESG: Making Sense of the Mudslinging
What ESG, sustainable investment and impact investment mean at Neuberger Berman, and how they are consistent with active management and the diverse needs of our clients.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Commodities: From Destocking to Restocking
The micro and macro factors weighing on commodities since last summer are starting to reverse—and secular tailwinds are building.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Politics, Deficits and the Debt Limit
We firmly believe that Congress will ultimately raise the debt limit, but it’s worth remembering that political drama affects markets.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The More Things Change
Has recent strong data changed the fundamental economic and market outlook, or just the timeline?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Central Banks Tighten, Markets Loosen
While some pessimism has lifted from central bank messaging, we still think the market may be hearing only what it wants to hear.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Practical Implications of the New Regime
You’ve pinned down your economic and market outlook, but what does it imply for your investment strategy—and how much of that is realistic?CIO Weekly Perspectives
A Delayed Reckoning
Equity markets had momentum coming into 2023, but has the economic data now become too bad for investors to ignore?CIO Weekly Perspectives
A Peak That Persists
We think sticky services inflation paired with a moderate slowdown will enable central banks to maintain higher rates for longer.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Macro Versus Micro
Top-down and bottom-up forecasts are increasingly diverging, and we think 2023 will be largely about how these divergences resolve themselves.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Outlook 2023
The leaders of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2023.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Escape From Flatland
A two-dimensional, return-and-volatility view of investments may not allow you to see important risks.CIO Weekly Perspectives
A Tale of Two Cities
Why we think the resilience of the U.S. economy is proving to be a real conundrum for investors.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Cryptonite
The FTX collapse is a blow to the idea of finance industry disruption and a potential source of volatility, but we think systemic contagion into broader financial markets is unlikely.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Asset Allocation Facts Have Changed
Why we think this year’s dramatic rise in bond yields, together with recent signs that inflation may have peaked, demands a radical re-think of asset allocation.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Shooting Down the Hawks
As the U.S. Federal Reserve’s messaging gets blurrier, markets are focusing on the data.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Divergences and Pivots
The exuberant response to last Thursday’s inflation data suggests markets are primed for the “pivot”—but could they be extrapolating too far?CIO Weekly Perspectives
COP27: A Chance to Reset
Broken promises, fraught debates and a dire economic and geopolitical backdrop are precisely why we believe COP27 is so important.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Is This ‘Nightmare on Wall Street’ Coming to an End?
Do corporate earnings disappointments signal a weaker economy and easing inflation pressures, which could end this scary market—or are there more twists to come?CIO Weekly Perspectives
An Eventful Time for Event-Driven Investing
In a tough market environment, we believe company management teams and boards have to be more creative, daring and decisive; seeking event-driven opportunities is all about finding those taking the most impactful action.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Schooling the Sovereigns
Bond markets appear to be disciplining policy inconsistencies, both within sovereigns and among them.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Be Wary of Bear Market Rallies
We may want to be optimistic about inflation and rates, but that only delays the hard questions we are likely to face as we enter the new economic era.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Policy Excesses and Market Discipline
We are seeing bond investors standing up for themselves against policymakers, and while equity investors are experiencing pain from this struggle, the end result may be a more sustainable, fundamentals-based market.CIO Weekly Perspectives
A High-Yielding Haven
As an ever-more-aggressive rate-hiking cycle rocks the financial markets, might corporate credit offer a space that is both remunerative and relatively calm?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Hold the Inflation Victory Lap
Inflation still appears to be the biggest source of potential volatility in the market, and we think that’s because it will remain the dominant economic story for the foreseeable future.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Climate Has Changed for Infrastructure
Following a year of starkly revealed vulnerabilities in water, energy and supply-chain assets, some game-changing legislation suggests that governments are finally getting serious about infrastructure investment.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Uncertainty May Be Worse Than the Slowdown
We do think the onset of recession is a time to tread carefully, but it could also be a time of opportunity for equity investors.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Euro Parity: Threshold or Boundary?
The euro is subject to enormous economic forces that could equally be very positive for the currency or the cause of an even greater fall.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Nominal and the Real
What might be the playbook for a potential recession in which nominal GDP grows by 8%—and are investors only just recognizing that they need one?CIO Weekly Perspectives
China: Suspended Animation
The run-up to China’s leadership meetings this fall is delaying substantial policy changes, in our view creating opportunities in advance of potential economic improvement next year.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Recession Semantics
Whether the U.S. is actually in a recession is debatable, but high inflation will affect companies both positively and negatively.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Ukraine and the Path to Deglobalization
This year’s recommendation for vacation reading offers a reminder of Ukraine’s millennia-old importance for global trade, helping us understand why today’s conflict could be yet another lasting blow against globalization.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Inflation is Hot—and Could Stay Hot
Autumn and winter should bring respite from the northern hemisphere’s punishing summer heatwave, but we don’t think they will ease the inflation temperature.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Earnings at a Crossroads
The guidance in this season’s earnings reports could start to tell us how far earnings are likely to decline and how much is already priced in.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Reasons for Optimism
Caution may be warranted during the uncertainty of the next quarter—but after markets have sold off so much, does it really make sense to be more pessimistic now than at the start of this year?CIO Weekly Perspectives
The ECB’s Trilemma
Are we seeing the start of another eurozone crisis, or can the ECB fashion an effective tool to manage volatile southern European bond spreads?CIO Weekly Perspectives
After the Revaluation, the Slowdown
Our Asset Allocation Committee believes that, whether we enter a recession or not, the expected slowdown and ongoing market volatility could feel like one for investors.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Space Economy Achieves Lift-Off
Space-based industry is much more down-to-earth than you might think—and every day it touches more and more of our lives.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Descending From Extremes Is a Rocky Process
To understand the current volatility, it helps to get reacquainted with just how out of whack things were coming into 2022—in terms of both magnitude and timing.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Two-Way Market Persists
The search for value is on, particularly in short to medium duration.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Two Perspectives on the Sell-Off
We see signs that many investors are changing the way they think about the current sell-off—and that might challenge the way you think about the balance of risk.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Staying On Theme
When inflation, interest rates and global economic uncertainty are rising, cash today can seem more urgent than exposure to the markets of tomorrow—but could that mean investors risk missing out on the potential of thematic strategies?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Are We There Yet?
Regardless of whether we get a hard or soft landing, we likely face a steep approach to the runway in trying to “land this plane.” The question is, how well consumers and companies absorb the slowdown, and whether sentiment is already bearish enough to create long-term value.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Inflation-Fighting Properties
Real estate has tended to get a prominent page in inflation playbooks—but do some parts of the market get a particularly strong tailwind from rising prices?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Japan Is Back on the Risk Radar
Japan and the extreme moves in its currency are among the most important dynamics in capital markets right now—here’s why we think they should loom much larger in investors’ minds.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Rising Costs of a Drawn-Out War
Financial markets may not ebb and flow with major developments on the battlefield anymore, but we believe they do still need to come to terms with the war’s lasting inflationary impact.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Cautious, Not Bearish
Investors may want to position for persistent volatility as growth begins to slow, but we still believe earnings growth supports the case for equities.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Has Fear of the Fed Peaked?
As investors continue to digest the likely path of this tightening cycle, we think the dramatic moves of recent weeks are set to ease, laying a good foundation for credit investors.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Virtual Worlds, Real Opportunities
Could the metaverse be a revolution in every aspect of our lives, ridiculous hype that will lead nowhere, or the natural progression of a world we’ve been living in for decades?CIO Weekly Perspectives
From Buying the Dips to Fading the Rallies
Equity markets are higher than they were on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine, but here’s why we think there is more volatility, and potentially more downside to come.CIO Weekly Perspectives
War, Inflation, and Markets
Investors appear to be refocusing on pre-war concerns about economic fundamentals—but finding that this horrific conflict has exacerbated them.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Value Can Potentially Outperform Even if Growth Slows
We believe value is likely to outperform growth over the coming years—and threats to economic growth from inflation, rate hikes and geopolitical risks do not change our view.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Uninvestable Russia
We survey the impact on worldwide fixed income markets of the devastation in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, and send our thoughts to those in the heart of the conflict.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Conflict and Commodities
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine adds an unwelcome geopolitical layer to the inflation challenge, and yet another reason to reintroduce commodities to the asset allocation mix.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Supply-Led Inflation Challenge
The Fed could end up playing checkers while the economy is playing chess—with potentially worldwide consequences.CIO Weekly Perspectives
How Deep Is EUR Love?
Thursday’s 7.5% U.S. inflation print reintroduced some volatility, but we still think the euro is building a base for a long-term relationship with its admirers.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Are Markets Signaling a Slowdown?
We see no sign of impending recession in calm credit markets, and in our view the flattening Treasury curve likely has more to do with the market’s failure to recognize growing structural inflationary forces.CIO Weekly Perspectives
China Is Still an Asian Tiger
We think the Lunar New Year could see a growth comeback for China.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Solving for a Year of Inflections
The Solving for 2022 delegates voted on what they think will be this year’s best-performing investment category—and here’s why we think they are right.CIO Weekly Perspectives
2022: A Year of Major Inflection Points
These five big transitions are likely to make 2022 a choppy and challenging year for equity investors—and the end of the coronavirus pandemic doesn’t even make the cut.CIO Weekly Perspectives
New Year, New Monetary Policy
As markets adjust for an environment of tighter monetary conditions, we preview the key themes of our forthcoming Fixed Income Investment Outlook.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Outlook 2022
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2022.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Fight Against Inflation Has Begun
We think that inflation, central bank policy and real rates will define the battlefield for markets in 2022—but will the most volatile skirmishes come sooner or later in the year?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Omicron vs. the Fed
The volatility of the past two weeks may have had less to do with the virus and more to do with underlying cyclical uncertainties about growth, inflation and Fed policy.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Real Rates Are the Key to This Cycle
Most of the consensus trades for 2021 failed in the second half of the year, and we think understanding why could be critical to unlocking the rest of this unique cycle.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Tremors in Credit and Currency Markets
November’s modest uptick in volatility, driven by a recalibration of the market’s macroeconomic expectations, could be a sign of things to come.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Simple Equity Themes for Complex Times
Here’s why we think value and income can offer equity investors both a buffer against uncertainty and an attractive opportunity in an ongoing reflationary expansion.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Inflation Could Unbalance Policy and Portfolios
As inflation pressures build and investors question central bank policies, we think it’s increasingly important to diversify against market volatility and rising prices.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Central Banks Emerge From Hibernation
Rates volatility reflects a change in the inflation narrative, and could accelerate central bank policy adjustments.CIO Weekly Perspectives
COP26: The Heat Is On
Why COP26 is arguably the most critical global summit in a generation—for investors, as well as for the climate.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Sustainability in Emerging Markets Debt
Ignoring sustainability in emerging markets debt is, for want of a better term, no longer sustainable.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Worst Seems to Be Over…Now It Gets Complicated
Investors have shifted focus from the immediate COVID-19 threat to the prospect of a cyclical slowdown and secular stagflation.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Caution Today, Opportunity Tomorrow
We think a more cautious stance represents a prudent approach to an already volatile inflection point between early-cycle recovery and mid-cycle expansion.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Inflation Generation
Temporary price spikes over the past 20 or 30 years have all passed without sparking a general rise in inflation, but here are four reasons why we think this time is different.CIO Weekly Perspectives
China’s New Strategy in Its Pan-Asian Context
Why we believe China’s strategic reorientation changes the case for investment rather than removing it, and also highlights the growing diversity of opportunity in the rest of Asia.CIO Weekly Perspectives
This Is Not a 60/40 Environment
The shift to a mid-cycle expansion beset with unusually high levels of uncertainty could bring a new test for asset allocators.CIO Weekly Perspectives
October Surprise?
It has been 11 months since the last 5% correction in equity markets, and the coming weeks present a number of significant potential risks.CIO Weekly Perspectives
ECB Policy and Bunds Are Set to Move
Ahead of the key European Central Bank policy meeting on September 9, we offer our views on what will likely change, what may not, and what it could mean for the Bund yield.CIO Weekly Perspectives
How Big Data Casts New Light on Reopening Stocks
Our recent work on the COVID-19 Delta variant not only reminds us that data science can give us insights into the pandemic, but also about the ways alternative data need to be marshaled to provide actionable information for our investment views.CIO Weekly Perspectives
China Policy Moves Strengthen the Case for the Local Market
China’s regulatory reforms may be disruptive in the short term, but we see long-term positives.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Don’t Fear the Taper
A potential reduction in the Fed’s purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities could open up opportunities for investors.CIO Weekly Perspectives
On the Joy of Being Wrong
Think Again, by Adam Grant, is Erik Knutzen’s recommendation for this year’s summer vacation reading.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Delta Blues
The Delta variant of the coronavirus is rattling markets and poses real risks, but we should not be distracted from the successful impact of vaccinations.CIO Weekly Perspectives
The Preferred Option
How tailored solutions deploying preferred stock can help private equity-owned companies solve a pressing challenge in their capital structures—and earn very attractive risk-adjusted returns in the process.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Reconciling the Data and the Markets
Inflation is up, Treasury yields are down, and the recovery trade is on the ropes—we believe it’s all more evidence of a fiercely debating, two-way market.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Technical Storm Drives Treasury Yields Lower
Light summer trading and overstretched short-duration positioning have led to a slump in rates—but is there anything more fundamental in the move?CIO Weekly Perspectives
Earnings Still Matter
Despite stretched equity market valuations, a blockbuster second-quarter earnings season could help sustain market momentum.CIO Weekly Perspectives
Two-Way Markets Are Back
After nearly a year going up in a straight line, questions about inflation, the economic cycle and central bank messaging have brought more push and pull back into markets.CIO Weekly Perspectives
