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Holiday Spending
Shoppers are out in force, but are businesses and governments catching the holiday spending spirit, too?
Lat-Am Spring?
The succession of political upheavals in South America resist easy categorization.
Social Tensions
Social media makes political risk turn up in unexpected places, with more sudden impact—and portfolios may be more exposed than we realize.
The Political Economy
As confidence in the economic data grows, wariness about political uncertainty and “fiscal dysfunction” is as elevated as it has been in years.
Catch-Up Potential for EM FX
As growth bottoms out and tail risks ease, attractive valuations support the case for emerging markets currencies.
Buying Time
Consumers and central banks need help from businesses and governments to sustain the economy.
Mercury Too High, Rates Too Low
At the World Bank and IMF annual meetings, two concerns dominated: climate change and negative interest rates.
Time to Get Off the Sidelines?
Things may be bottoming out.
Challenges Ahead
The events and data of recent weeks make us want to err on the side of caution.
Recession in the Making?
Jobs market data suggests that the manufacturing slowdown is not metastasizing into full recession—for now.
Building Momentum
We believe the underappreciated growth story in REITs has many years yet to play out.
Resilient or Reckless?
Extraordinary events are buffeting markets, but equity indices sail on.
Reversal
Gloomy market trends have collapsed. So, are investors less gloomy about the economy?
Collateral Damage
China and the U.S. are perhaps the biggest source of current investment risk, but not the most exposed.
Toxic Mix of Politics and Policy
It’s official: We’ve moved into another dimension.
Navigating Summer Squalls
Managing volatility and maximizing opportunities in the late cycle.
Forget the Barometer
We don’t need an inverted yield curve to tell us a global manufacturing downturn may be underway.
Dog Days of August?
News flow has turned ugly again, but equity markets are a long way from irrational exuberance.
Opportunity Knocks in Inflation
As investors take temporarily weak inflation to be structural, it creates potential value in TIPS.
Factful Optimism
Why I am packing Hans Rosling’s Factfulness for this year’s vacation reading.
The Final Approach
Last week’s data shows that we may be levelling out for a soft landing.
Don’t Fight the Fed
Brace for the first rate cut in a decade—but don’t get dragged along by it.
Hidden Value
Lagging small caps indicate that, beneath the record-high S&P 500, all may not be as placid as it seems.
Buck Down to Earth
Is recent U.S. dollar weakness a resumption of the downtrend that started at the end of 2016?
Do We Really Need Lower Rates?
They may discourage the fiscal reform and corporate investment that the economy needs.
The Narrative Arc
Late-cycle data points are noisy and inconclusive, and the stories we tell about them don’t always add up.
The Powell Put
Was last week’s bounce for risk assets a mere taste of what’s to come if the Fed cuts rates this year?
Wrestling in the Markets
Slowing growth, low yields and geopolitical maneuvers are making for quite a spectacle.
Still Emerging
News flow may be distracting from emerging markets’ attractive, mid-cycle fundamentals and valuations.
News Cycle vs. Business Cycle
Trade talks are important and may cause volatility, but they should not determine portfolio strategy.
Tariffied
Is the U.S.-China deal dead, and how bad might this get for risk assets?
On the Meaning of “Transitory”
The Fed Chair has been stretching semantics on inflation, but his growth outlook mirrors ours.
Earning Sustainable Gains
Human tragedy, financial damage, regulatory tightening and people power are driving ESG up the agenda.
Time to Rethink Euro-Pessimism
Threats to euro-zone growth are now more external than internal.
Storm Warnings Over the Atlantic
Our geopolitical risk focus turns to Europe—and trade conflict with the U.S. looms largest.
A Higher Degree of Debt
Should we worry about bubbles in leveraged loans, BBBs—or the Millennials’ student debt burden?
Bonds vs. Stocks: Which Market Is Right?
Is the bond market cautious or confused? Is the equity market confident or complacent?
Is ‘Goldilocks’ Back?
As the Fed turns more dovish, a familiar fairytale heroine returns—but will there be another happy ending?
Clearing the Hurdles
The ECB’s accommodative stance removes one more obstacle from a global soft landing.
Five Eyes on 5G
The spy stories reveal 5G as a true strategic asset and an investment theme whose time has come.
Political Theater
Political dramas are coming to a head, but we think this economic cycle still has an act or two to play out.
Good News, Bad News and Walls of Worry
For investors, the mature part of this cycle may feel like the rest of the cycle writ large.
False Signals, Real Opportunity
What Wall Street’s earnings results tell us about credit market opportunities.
The V in Volatility
The equity rally is likely just the start of a volatile adjustment to a new fundamental reality.
From Brussels With Love
As Brexit Day looms, Theresa May has until Valentine’s Day to wring concessions from the E.U.
The Wisdom of Crowds
Why was our “Solving for 2019” audience less worried about recession but more cautious on equities?
Known Knowns and Known Unknowns
If there were to be a recession this year, what might the cause be?
December’s Lack of Good Cheer
The year-end sell-off may have been as much about poor market liquidity as poor fundamentals.
Ten for 2019
The heads of our investment platforms identified the key themes they anticipate will guide investment decisions in 2019.
An Alien Environment
To a visiting Martian, 2018 would suggest that risk is unrewarded and diversification is a waste of effort.Top