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Not Out of the Woods
The discipline of scenario planning helps us focus on what has been achieved, rather than what we hope will be achieved.
The Stock Market Is Not the Economy
COVID-19 has damaged a lot of things, including the link between the S&P 500 and the U.S. economy.
Empty Malls and Conference Calls
The COVID-19 crisis has been tough on REITs in general—but some sectors have been resilient, and may offer a glimpse into the future of the asset class.
Canary in the Coal Mine
The credit market has lagged while equities have rallied—is it warning investors not to get carried away?
Futures Shock
Amid unprecedented market dislocations and uncertainty, preparing playbooks for a range of outcomes can help us stay nimble and adaptive.
A Playbook for the Recovery
We’ve been refining our outlook for the COVID-19 crisis and recovery—and it emphasizes patience and caution about the equity market rally.
Protective and Proactive
Liquid alternatives and private market investors are proving their worth during the current turmoil.
A Tale of Two Markets
March was the worst of times for financial markets, and yet the best of times for primary issuance of investment grade credit.
Safety First
After a big sell-off, many fear missing the rebound—but we expect more volatility and think the time for opportunism will come later.
Shock and Awe
Does this week’s multitrillion-dollar shot in the arm vaccinate the economy against the worst impact of COVID-19?
High Drama in High Yield
Coronavirus and the OPEC price war combine for a one-two punch to high yield markets.
Prepare for the Long Haul
Why the major uncertainties twisting markets out of shape today are likely to persist for months.
Coronavirus: A Moving Target
If you haven’t reduced risk, it’s probably not too late to do so; if you are already conservatively positioned, it may be too early to buy the dips.
Will Kraft Heinz Spoil the Credit Markets?
We see the food giant’s recent downgrade as idiosyncratic and at odds with generally stable financial conditions.
Smarter Strategies, Smartly Implemented
Risk management can be more informed when it draws on the full range of quantitative, fundamental and data-science insights.
Coronavirus: The View From China
Aggressive public health, monetary and fiscal interventions appear to be taking effect.
The Coronavirus and Portfolio Risk
We hope for rapid containment of the coronavirus outbreak, but believe it is too early to make big investment decisions.
Credit 2020: Bull or Bear?
At our Solving for 2020 conference in London, we debated the outlook for credit in the simplest possible terms.
Brand Ambassadors
How investors can transform brand loyalties into brand royalties.
Do Middle East Geopolitics Matter?
Factors closer to global economic fundamentals should win out in 2020, and on balance we are prepared to maintain risk in our views.
Outlook 2020
The heads of our investment platforms welcome the New Year with their views for 2020.
Deflated Expectations
Economic recovery in general, and inflation-linked bonds in particular, have become undervalued in Europe.
Holiday Spending
Shoppers are out in force, but are businesses and governments catching the holiday spending spirit, too?
Lat-Am Spring?
The succession of political upheavals in South America resist easy categorization.
Social Tensions
Social media makes political risk turn up in unexpected places, with more sudden impact—and portfolios may be more exposed than we realize.
The Political Economy
As confidence in the economic data grows, wariness about political uncertainty and “fiscal dysfunction” is as elevated as it has been in years.
Catch-Up Potential for EM FX
As growth bottoms out and tail risks ease, attractive valuations support the case for emerging markets currencies.
Buying Time
Consumers and central banks need help from businesses and governments to sustain the economy.
Mercury Too High, Rates Too Low
At the World Bank and IMF annual meetings, two concerns dominated: climate change and negative interest rates.
Time to Get Off the Sidelines?
Things may be bottoming out.
Challenges Ahead
The events and data of recent weeks make us want to err on the side of caution.
Recession in the Making?
Jobs market data suggests that the manufacturing slowdown is not metastasizing into full recession—for now.
Building Momentum
We believe the underappreciated growth story in REITs has many years yet to play out.
Resilient or Reckless?
Extraordinary events are buffeting markets, but equity indices sail on.
Reversal
Gloomy market trends have collapsed. So, are investors less gloomy about the economy?
Collateral Damage
China and the U.S. are perhaps the biggest source of current investment risk, but not the most exposed.
Toxic Mix of Politics and Policy
It’s official: We’ve moved into another dimension.
Navigating Summer Squalls
Managing volatility and maximizing opportunities in the late cycle.
Forget the Barometer
We don’t need an inverted yield curve to tell us a global manufacturing downturn may be underway.
Dog Days of August?
News flow has turned ugly again, but equity markets are a long way from irrational exuberance.
Opportunity Knocks in Inflation
As investors take temporarily weak inflation to be structural, it creates potential value in TIPS.
Factful Optimism
Why I am packing Hans Rosling’s Factfulness for this year’s vacation reading.
The Final Approach
Last week’s data shows that we may be levelling out for a soft landing.
Don’t Fight the Fed
Brace for the first rate cut in a decade—but don’t get dragged along by it.
Hidden Value
Lagging small caps indicate that, beneath the record-high S&P 500, all may not be as placid as it seems.
Buck Down to Earth
Is recent U.S. dollar weakness a resumption of the downtrend that started at the end of 2016?
Do We Really Need Lower Rates?
They may discourage the fiscal reform and corporate investment that the economy needs.
The Narrative Arc
Late-cycle data points are noisy and inconclusive, and the stories we tell about them don’t always add up.
The Powell Put
Was last week’s bounce for risk assets a mere taste of what’s to come if the Fed cuts rates this year?
Wrestling in the Markets
Slowing growth, low yields and geopolitical maneuvers are making for quite a spectacle.Top