Equities, including small caps, have performed remarkably well since the Great Recession. As you can see in the first chart, leadership within small-cap equities since the market trough in 2009 has been skewed toward companies with business models predicated on high levels of debt. We believe that this outperformance, which peaked at roughly 40% in 2014, may be largely attributable to the abundant refinancing opportunities available in an environment of declining interest rates, refinancing opportunities that are largely exhausted today.

The second chart shows how much more exposed certain small-cap stocks could be to rising rates compared to their large-cap peers. Only 10% of the weighting of the Russell 2000 Index is investment grade rated and thus has access to 30-year debt maturities; in contrast, nearly 90% of the S&P 500 carries an investment grade rating. The much shorter debt maturities of the Russell 2000 Index suggest it will be more impacted by short-term interest rate movements. Looking forward, we believe balance sheet strength will again be a determinant of performance within the small-cap market—which hasn’t necessarily been the case since 2009.

Highly Leveraged Small-Cap Stocks Have Outperformed the Small-Cap Market Since 2009

Monthly Relative Performance of Highest Debt-To-Capital Small-Cap Companies, Excluding Financials, versus the Russell 2000 Index

Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Small Cap Research; Russell Investment Group. Data from March 31, 2009 - January 31. 2017. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. See Additional Disclosure section at the end of this piece, which is an important part of this presentation.

But a Sea Change in Leadership Could Be in Store if Interest Rates Rise

Debt Maturities of the S&P 500 Index versus the Russell 2000 Index

Source: Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research based on notional debt excluding financials. Information reflects all bonds outstanding, regardless of maturity. Hedges are not included in this analysis.

Implications for Investors

In an environment of rising rates, outperformance within the small-cap market segment could dramatically shift away from lower-quality, high debt businesses. We believe that a focus on identifying higher-quality companies with balance sheet strength, free cash flow generation, high barriers to entry and above-average business models is key to navigating the changing market dynamics of the small-cap universe.