Optimizing insurance portfolios for the road ahead.

Each year, Neuberger Berman updates its capital market assumptions to create future return and risk estimates for major asset classes, agnostic of any tactical views or alpha-generating potential. Changes to those assumptions reflect changes in our economic and market outlooks and in asset valuations, and they can have a meaningful effect on the relative attractiveness of asset classes in portfolio optimizations.

In this paper, we present key findings from our 2024 capital market assumptions, following a year of recovering equity markets, volatile bond markets and persistent above-target inflation. We consider how those findings relate to some of the current challenges insurers are facing—such as unrealized losses complicating the portfolio rebalancing process, and the low availability of reinsurance—and discuss some implications for asset allocation.

Executive Summary

  • Following a dramatic sell-off in both equities and bonds during 2022, 2023 brought some relief in equities but continued uncertainty in fixed income, as inflation ran above target and policy rates were tightened further.
  • We show the changes between 2023 and 2024 in our estimates for five- to 10-year return and volatility for a range of asset classes.
  • For a 60/40 portfolio, an illustrative life insurer portfolio and an illustrative property & casualty (P&C) insurer portfolio, we show marginal analyses of the effect on estimated return and volatility of reallocating 1% of a portfolio pro rata to a range of asset classes under our 2024 capital market assumptions.
  • Key findings and themes:
    – Fixed income still appears more attractive than equities, although the estimated return for private equity offers substantially more compensation for its higher volatility.
    – Real estate, extended fixed income and less-liquid credit markets appear particularly attractive in terms of both estimated riskadjusted return and our marginal analyses.
    – Extended credit may help insurers diversify credit portfolios and address the fact that refreshing portfolios to take advantage of higher market yields means realizing substantial losses on existing assets; rotating out of existing core fixed income positions into extended credit has the potential to deliver the higher estimated returns required to recover realized losses more quickly.

Marginal Analysis: Illustrative Life Insurer

Change in estimated annualized return and volatility of a portfolio when 1% is reallocated pro rata to each named asset class

Capital Market Assumptions 2024: Implications for Insurance Portfolios

Marginal Analysis: Illustrative P&C Insurer

Change in estimated annualized return and volatility of a portfolio when 1% is reallocated pro rata to each named asset class

Capital Market Assumptions 2024: Implications for Insurance Portfolios

Source: Neuberger Berman, Bloomberg-Barclays, Cambridge Associates, FactSet; Analytics are as of December 31, 2023. IMPORTANT: The performance and risk projections/estimates are hypothetical in nature and reflect the Neuberger Berman’s Capital Market Assumptions. The estimates do not reflect actual investment results and are not guarantees of future results. Actual returns and volatility may vary significantly. Asset classes are represented by benchmarks and do not represent any Neuberger Berman investment product or service. Please see Additional Disclosures at the end of the presentation for asset class and index definitions, terminology definitions and Neuberger Berman Capital Market Assumptions. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal.